Citibank: October non-farm data will significantly slow down, market focus will not return to economic recession

The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but policymakers have shifted some attention to the maximum employment part of their dual mandate. Citi economist Veronica Clark said in a recent report, "October non-farm data will be an important confirmation or denial of stronger September data, but it may not be enough to shift market attention back to the risk of a US economic recession," However, October's data will reflect the ongoing impact of Boeing strikes and hurricanes.

Clark estimates that these factors could reduce employment by 70-80 thousand. Citi's view on non-farm employment data is more moderate than generally expected, predicting an increase of 90 thousand people and a slight rise in unemployment rate to 4.23%. In addition, Citi stated that any downward adjustment to September's data could be more significant than usual.