Guotai Junan Futures: Geopolitical Tensions Ease Temporarily, Gold, Silver, Copper, Nickel, and Tin Rebound Together

Guotai Junan Futures Market Analyst

Zhang Chining

Z0020302

The tense nerves of the market seem to have found some brief relief due to a piece of news. According to several media reports, U.S. President Trump revealed that talks between the U.S. and Iran may take place in the next two days, and both sides are discussing a second round of negotiations. Although the specific schedule is yet to be determined, the very mention of "negotiation" is enough to offer a glimmer of hope for easing the geopolitical tensions that have lasted for months.

After the news broke, the domestic commodities market responded in early trading today. Previously suppressed precious metals and nonferrous metals sectors saw a round of broad-based recovery. Among them, SHFE Silver took the lead in rallying, and others performed strongly as well; copper and gold also shook off their recent sluggishness, with prices showing a significant rebound.

[Market Review: Rebound Underway, but Pace Varies]

Looking at the specific trends, each product's rebound pattern differs:

The main SHFE Silver contract is showing a volatile upward trend, recently forming a clear rebound channel. It is noteworthy that since this week, as prices have risen, there have been obvious signs of increased positions, indicating active buying is pushing up prices. However, upon reaching the 20,000 yuan round number, resistance emerged, holdings decreased, and the upward pace temporarily slowed.

The trend of gold appears more steady and cautious. Although also rising in volatility, the price continues to be under pressure near the previous gap. Taking the main Au2606 contract as an example, it is currently facing resistance around the March 19th low (about 1060), and funds are also showing signs of outflow near this pressure level, lasting for several hours.

Currently, SHFE Tin and SHFE Nickel are both within rebound channels and have successfully regained the crucial 60-day moving average technical support. SHFE Nickel's performance is particularly resilient, standing firmly above the 60-day average for two consecutive solid gains, with prices now at the upper boundary of the trading range that has formed since February. As seen in today's intraday chart of SHFE Nickel, bullish funds are still trying hard to break upwards; SHFE Tin and SHFE Copper are also moving up in sync, but their performance is slightly weaker compared to SHFE Nickel.

[Behind the Rebound: Not Only Geopolitical Easing, but Also Fundamental Resonance]

This rebound is not just an emotional recovery brought about by the fading of geopolitical risk premiums but also the result of resonance with the underlying fundamental logic of each commodity.

1. SHFE Nickel: Costs "Propped Up" by Policy

Recently, the biggest story in the nickel market comes from Indonesia. The country has revised the calculation formula for the mineral benchmark price (HPM), which in plain terms means raising the valuation basis for levying "resource tax" on mining companies.

What has been revised? Mainly two points: first, the value of nickel ore has been significantly increased, with the coefficient for pricing mainstream 1.6% grade nickel ore raised from 17% to 30%, and the premium for high-grade ore is even more pronounced; second, metals sold as by-products now also count towards the tax, so the values of cobalt, iron, and chromium that come with the ore must be included in the tax system. This means that when mining companies sell ore, they may have to pay more resource tax.

How big is the cost impact? The new rules are expected to lift nickel’s production costs across the board. The mainstream pyrometallurgical process may see immediate cash costs rise to 135,000 yuan/ton. For hydrometallurgical processes, in addition to the impact from the nickel coefficient hike, they typically contain even more valuable cobalt in the ore, resulting in a "double whammy" and even greater cost pressure.

2. SHFE Tin: Persistent Supply-Side "Headaches"

Tin's fundamentals have their own resilience. Domestically, the output of tin ingots in March fell 2.16% year-on-year, with recycled tin output plunging about 25% year-on-year. In terms of inventory, social inventory remains at a low level compared to recent years, indicating supply remains tight.

What concerns the market more is overseas supply disruptions. On one hand, a chemical plant in Wa State, Myanmar, recently exploded, and the local government has ordered a comprehensive shutdown and rectification of related plants, which may exacerbate the shortage of explosives and affect the resumption schedule of Wa State tin mines expected by the market. On the other hand, conflicts persist in eastern Congo (DRC), a major African producing region, and the security situation is deteriorating. The Chinese embassy has again advised citizens to evacuate. These events have intensified market worries about global tin mine supply, providing support for prices.

3. Gold, Silver, Copper: Recovery under Eased Geopolitical Pressure

For gold and silver, this round of rebound is mainly due to the direct relief of geopolitical pressure. As the U.S. and Iran begin negotiations, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to ease temporarily, calming market panic and allowing previously suppressed prices to recover. Among them, due to its higher elasticity, silver has taken the lead in the rebound. Nevertheless, in the long term, the gold-silver ratio may still be in an upward correction channel.

Copper's rebound is also driven by its solid fundamentals: the global supply of copper ore remains tight; about 20% of capacity—those using the hydrometallurgical process—has been constrained by the near standstill of sulfur shipping from the Middle East due to the Strait of Hormuz being under control, restricting production releases in major hubs like the DRC. Additionally, the construction boom of U.S. AI computing centers is fueling long-term growth in copper consumption. Along with concerns over potential trade tariffs, this jointly pushes copper prices higher.

[Outlook and Risk Control: The Road to Rebound May Not Be Smooth]

The current market is mainly trading the logic of "geopolitical easing - price recovery." Looking ahead, besides closely following the substantial progress of the second round of U.S.-Iran talks, investors should also focus on another storyline: After a pause in geopolitical risks, how will Federal Reserve officials redefine the current inflation and interest rate environment? Their public statements will have a significant impact on global asset pricing. Around 8:35 p.m. this Thursday (UTC+8), permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech, which deserves attention.

In addition, it's important to note that geopolitical events are highly unpredictable. The attitudes of Iran and the United States have recently oscillated and reversed, which will inevitably bring market volatility. Therefore, even if prices are in a recovery channel, the process will not be all smooth sailing. When facing the rebound, it is advised to stay rational, keep positions under control, manage risks well, and avoid blindly chasing highs due to short-term market optimism.

Data sources: Jinshi Data, SMM, Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute

Manuscript deadline: April 15, 2026, 11:52 a.m. (UTC+8)

Editor: Zhu Henan