THINK Ahead: From having plenty of cash to not a penny to spend

How the Current Crisis Stands Apart from 2022’s Energy Shock

Much has been written about the ways in which today’s crisis diverges from the energy shock of 2022, and unfortunately, the differences are often not encouraging. The labor market has cooled, government support is less generous, and monetary policy has tightened, all of which leave the economy more exposed to risks. As a result, the likelihood of persistent inflation has diminished.

However, there is a silver lining when it comes to savings in Europe. The savings rate—the share of income that households set aside rather than spend—has remained above its pre-pandemic norm in the eurozone. While this trend hasn’t been mirrored in the United States, it’s particularly significant for Europe, where the impact of the current energy crisis is expected to be more severe. In fact, savings levels in the eurozone are now comparable to those seen in previous periods of economic uncertainty.