A coal mine accident leads to stricter safety supervision, strengthening the short-term upward momentum for coking coal and coke.

Jinse Finance Futures Special Comment by CITIC Futures: Currently, the fundamentals of coke and coking coal are healthier compared to 2024, with inventories at upstream coal mines being lower than in 2024. Even without any coal mine accidents, downstream demand for hot metal can basically absorb the supply of coke and coking coal, and market sentiment is not pessimistic. The current situation of low upstream inventories is expected to continue, providing support for coal prices. Therefore, we believe that the significant supply gap of coking coal caused by this major coal mine accident may reverse the previous downward trend in the market, strengthening the short-term upward momentum for coke and coking coal prices. If subsequent safety supervision in coal mines expands further to Shanxi or nationwide, prices of coke and coking coal may continue to rise and reach new highs for the year. However, attention should be paid to whether Mongolian coal imports will increase significantly due to tightened domestic coal mine supply.