Bullish Signals Flash! Bitcoin Sees Another "Golden Cross": $3.8 Billion ETF Inflows, Historical Patterns Point to $100,000 by Year-End?
Bitcoin price approaches $80,000, recording its first golden cross in over six months.
According to Zhihui Finance APP, the bitcoin market has just triggered one of the most iconic bullish signals in the eyes of technical analysts. On September 8th, bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average officially crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming what crypto traders call a “Golden Cross.” This is the first time since November 2025 that this technical pattern has reappeared.
The Golden Cross formed as bitcoin hovered in the critical $78,000 to $80,000 range. Since mid-August, bitcoin’s price has risen by about 25% in total, reaching a recent high of $81,265 in late August. At the same time, institutional funds are flowing in at an unprecedented pace—US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a total of $3.8 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, marking the strongest institutional buy activity since 2026.
Golden Cross: A widely followed but “mixed” signal
The Golden Cross is one of the oldest technical indicators in financial markets. When a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average, it indicates recent price momentum has overtaken the mid-to-long-term trend, often interpreted as a sign the market could shift from weakness to strength.
However, this signal has not always been uniformly bullish in the bitcoin market. Since 2012, there have been 12 Golden Crosses on bitcoin. Of the 9 occasions where three-month returns could be measured, the average gain was 24.9%, yet only three managed to avoid being broken by a “Death Cross” (short-term moving average crossing below the long-term moving average) and persist for a full year—those saw an average annual gain of as much as 250%.
This means the Golden Cross has decent short-term performance within three months, but cases where the momentum lasts a full year are the exception, not the rule. Technical analysts generally agree that since moving averages are based on smoothed past prices, the signal tends to appear only after most of the market move has occurred, making it an inherently lagging indicator.
Still, the last three Golden Crosses performed extraordinarily well in the short term: after September 2021, bitcoin rose 50%; after October 2023, up 45%; and after October 2024, about 60%. Using the historical average three-month return of 24.9% as a guide, with the current base of $79,000-$80,000, the year-end target would point to the $99,000 to $100,000 range.
USDT Market Share “Death Cross”: Funds flowing from stablecoins back to risk assets
The difference in this Golden Cross event lies in another key market indicator also reinforcing the bullish signal—USDT’s dominance is approaching a “Death Cross,” where its 50-day moving average is about to cross below the 200-day moving average.
USDT dominance measures the value of all Tether tokens in circulation as a proportion of the entire crypto market. A sustained decline in this indicator typically signifies rising risk appetite—funds are flowing out of “cash-like” stablecoins back into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, volatility in USDT dominance has often marked major trend changes in bitcoin.
This combination—the Golden Cross for bitcoin and the Death Cross for USDT dominance—is viewed as even more compelling bullish evidence in this rally than any single technical pattern alone.
Institutional “Ammunition Depot”: $3.8 billion ETF inflow and IBIT’s dominance
The capital inflow supporting this rally is also noteworthy. Over the past three weeks, US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $3.8 billion in net inflows. As of the week ending September 4th, net inflows totaled about $987 million, with a large $731 million coming in last Thursday, and $175 million on Friday.
Funds are highly concentrated in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). As of September 4th, IBIT has net assets of $62.52 billion, accounting for about 62% of the entire category’s total $101.3 billion. Since its launch in January 2024, IBIT has seen cumulative net inflows of $63.9 billion, surpassing the entire bitcoin ETF category’s $55.5 billion of total net inflows.
This highly concentrated fund structure means: as long as IBIT continues absorbing capital, the entire category maintains net inflows. But once IBIT turns to net outflows, the entire category could swing to net outflows in a single day—as demonstrated on September 1st, when $236.5 million left the category. Marginal demand for ETF inflows is increasingly dominated by a single fund, which is both a driver for the rally and a potential amplifier for corrections.
Resistance to the rally: The $83,000 “sell wall” and macro headwinds
Despite both technical and capital signals flashing green, bitcoin’s path upward is not without obstacles.
On-chain data shows a giant sell wall near $83,000. All address groups holding bitcoin have, for the first time since early June, collectively turned net sellers; whales and other holder groups have started increasing their distribution after the latest rise. Bitcoin has faced resistance and pulled back twice recently after testing the $81,000-$82,000 area.
There are also macro pressures. US non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations, pushing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September up to 58%-60%. Strong labor data dampens the case for rate cuts, and as a risk asset, bitcoin tends to face pressure in a high-interest-rate environment.
According to CoinGlass, the open interest in bitcoin futures on centralized exchanges is hovering near $54.42 billion—highly leveraged positions could trigger cascaded liquidations should the trend reverse.
Outlook: Technical “green light” versus fundamental “yellow light”
The Golden Cross for bitcoin plus the Death Cross in USDT dominance form the most compelling technical combo for this round’s rally. The $3.8 billion ETF institutional inflow provides real capital support for this signal.
However, historical data shows the “shelf life” of a Golden Cross is not stable—only three out of twelve signals lasted an entire year. The $83,000 sell wall, heightened Fed rate hike expectations, and the highly concentrated ETF capital structure are all short-term obstacles not to be ignored.
Technical analysts have marked the current $78,700 region as a key decision area: if the weekly close is above it, control shifts to the bulls; if it fails again, it could reinforce the correction thesis towards $78,700. The US CPI data on September 11th and the FOMC meeting on September 15th-16th will be the next major catalysts shaping short-term direction.
The Golden Cross has switched on a technical “green light,” but macro fundamentals and market structure are still flashing a “yellow light.” Caught between signal confirmation and resistance, the next chapter in bitcoin’s journey is far more complex than a simple cross pattern.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Updated: Delta Air Lines warns that as fuel prices hit profits, airline capacity will tighten further
Delta Airlines lowers its annual profit forecast due to an expected increase in fuel costs to $6 billion. The CEO stated that ticket prices have risen by about 20% this year, with limited passenger resistance. Analysts warn that maintaining high ticket prices in 2027 is critical for improving profitability. The article includes comments from the earnings call and analyst remarks. Rajesh Kumar Singh/Shivansh Tiwary, Reuters Chicago, October 9 - Delta Airlines (DAL.N) said on Friday that, despite strong travel demand and rising ticket prices, soaring fuel costs have forced it to cut its 2026 profit expectations by nearly a quarter. So, the airline industry may need to further limit flight growth next year to protect profitability. This warning highlights the increasingly tough challenges faced by U.S. airlines. While strong demand and restricted seat growth have allowed airlines to significantly raise ticket prices and offset higher fuel costs, aggressively increasing flights to capture more demand may intensify competition, making it harder to maintain high fares and protect profits. Based in Atlanta, Delta now expects its annual fuel expenditure to increase by about $6 billion compared to last year—about $2 billion higher than its July forecast—due to the Iran war (link) causing global jet fuel prices to spike. Airlines worldwide are preparing for a prolonged fuel shock. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair Group RYA.I, said Thursday that high jet fuel prices could persist for another 12-18 months (link), adding more pressure on airlines to raise fares and control costs. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOMATED-20261008/A4A-JET-FUEL-DAILY-1Y/xmpjwjnmbvr/chart.png “In a high-cost environment, you can’t simply grow your way out,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call. He noted that the industry has already taken steps to restrict capacity, but more measures will be needed next year to improve profitability. Bastian said Delta raised ticket prices about 20% this year, and passenger resistance has been limited. He is confident that even if fuel costs eventually drop, the high fares can still be maintained. Delta lowered its adjusted annual earnings per share forecast from the July prediction of $6.50-$7.50 to $5.10-$5.60. According to LSEG data, the midpoint of the new range is below analysts’ average expectation of $5.46. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.72, four cents below analysts’ average forecast. In midday trading, shares of Delta dropped 1.7%, United Airlines UAL.O fell 1.4%, and both American Airlines AAL.O and Southwest Airlines LUV.N were down about 1%. Delta partly shields itself from rising fuel costs by owning a refinery outside Philadelphia (link), which is expected to generate over $700 million in profits this year. Even with this buffer, the airline expects its fourth-quarter fuel price to rise from $3.61 per gallon in Q3 to $4.25 per gallon. Delta forecasts adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share to be between $1.15-$1.65, with the $1.40 midpoint roughly matching analysts’ average expectation of $1.39. Fare increases Government data shows that in the first eight months of 2026, U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel, an increase of $13.2 billion compared to the same period last year despite slightly reduced consumption. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, strong demand and limited seat growth pushed average U.S. airline ticket prices up by about 25% year-on-year between April and August. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-AIRLINES/FUEL/lbpgdnbzwvq/chart.png Analysts at Melius Research said that despite surging fuel costs, Delta’s ability to raise fares helps keep second-half profits roughly stable. Still, they warn that the company’s profit margin has struggled to improve over the years. “It is critical for margin improvement to maintain or raise fares in 2027,” they wrote in their research report. With industry capacity growth expected to accelerate in Q4, this challenge will likely become even tougher. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the proportion of fuel costs recouped through revenue measures to fall in Q4 and predict full recovery won’t happen until early 2027. Bastian noted that low industry returns are another reason for limiting capacity growth. He said Delta will be cautious with its 2027 capacity plan until the fuel price outlook becomes clearer. He added that international routes may account for a larger share of Delta’s capacity expansion compared to domestic routes. Currently, Delta says its premium cabins and corporate travel business remain strong, and its economy cabin business is gradually improving. With Q4 ticket bookings already exceeding 60%, Delta expects revenue to increase about 20% year-on-year, despite limited capacity growth. Executives said early booking trends for Q1 2027 are also encouraging. (For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several
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