U.S. Stock Market Gains Mask Economic Slowdown, 35% Chance of Recession Ahead

According to ChainCatcher, citing Jintou reports, a report by Pinhao points out that there is a discrepancy between the performance of the US stock market and the overall economy. Although the S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 10% so far this year, the process has been volatile, with a drawdown of about 20% in April. The report shows that the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending in the first half of 2025 is 1%, and real GDP growth continues to slow. A Bloomberg survey indicates that the average probability of a US economic recession in the coming year is 35%.