BNY Mellon: The Fed Will Deliver a Hawkish Rate Cut This Week, Dot Plot Reveals Policy Divergence

According to ChainCatcher, citing Golden Ten Data, analysts at Bank of New York Mellon stated in a report that the market has fully priced in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. However, there is a growing consensus that this will be a hawkish rate cut, and further monetary easing will depend on whether economic data released in March and June 2026 weakens or if inflation continues to decline. The analysts also mentioned that the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chair poses a risk, as the market will assess the policy inclinations of the new leadership. In addition, the FOMC will release a dot plot, and it is expected that there will be significant divergence among committee members regarding the policy direction for 2026, reflecting two-sided economic risks.