Fed rate hike now seen more likely than a cut over next 3 months

Markets have flipped on the Federal Reserve's near-term path. The Atlanta Fed's Market Probability Tracker implies that the odds of a quarter-point hike are higher than the odds of a cut, as market participants continued to digest a murkier, stagflationary outlook as the ongoing Middle East conflict jolted energy markets. But that doesn't mean markets are suddenly bracing for an aggressive tightening cycle. Instead, the Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged again at 3.50%-3.75% when the Federal Open Market Committee announces the decision Wednesday, and futures markets still point to ... (full story)