The Truth About Investing in 2026

Podcast Highlights: Market Impacts and Investment Strategies

On this episode, Motley Fool contributors Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Jon Quast explore:

• The effects of the conflict in Iran on global financial markets
• Whether there are any true safe havens for investors
• The stocks they're currently monitoring

For complete episodes of The Motley Fool's free podcasts. If you're considering investing, check out this curated list of top stocks.

Podcast Transcript

Recorded March 20, 2026

Analyzing the Iran Conflict's Market Consequences

Travis Hoium: Oil prices are climbing while the stock market is dropping. Where do we go from here? The situation in Iran is driving up energy costs and causing market declines, with potential long-term effects on the economy. We'll break down the immediate and lasting impacts, especially in the energy sector. Notably, about one-fifth of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now under scrutiny. Qatar's LNG facilities have been damaged, and restoring them could take years. Over the next few months, what are you watching in the energy markets and the broader economy?

Lou Whiteman: The challenge is that there are two timelines: immediate destruction and the lengthy process of rebuilding. An explosion can cause instant damage, but repairs may take months or even years. For example, Qatar's LNG assets might not be fully restored for three to five years, assuming no further setbacks. The longer the conflict persists, the longer recovery will take. We're likely facing years before things return to normal, which presents significant difficulties for the global economy.

Supply Chain Complexities and Mitigation Efforts

Travis Hoium: Jon, are there quick fixes for these disruptions? We've discussed tapping the US oil reserve and countries like Saudi Arabia increasing output, but there seems to be less flexibility now. How do you view the supply chain challenges?

Jon Quast: Supply chains can become tangled rapidly. While OPEC adjusts oil supply regularly, the current issue is more about the supply chain, such as the damaged LNG facility in Qatar, which is much harder to resolve. Releasing oil reserves has minimal impact due to their small size relative to daily consumption. The US government is considering waiving the Jones Act to ease port restrictions, but estimates suggest this would barely affect gas prices. Ultimately, rebuilding supply chains will take time, and we can't begin until the conflict subsides.

Economic Ripple Effects and Historical Comparisons

Lou Whiteman: Another factor is the "crack spread," which is the difference between crude oil prices and refined products. Despite a global surplus of crude, refining capacity is limited, and demand for products like gasoline and jet fuel remains steady, especially for military use. Fertilizer and semiconductor production are also affected, as key ingredients pass through the Gulf. The disruptions are extensive, and each day the conflict continues, recovery is delayed further.

Travis Hoium: Comparing this to past events, such as the 1973 oil crisis and the Iraq War in 2003, both had lasting economic and market impacts. If this situation mirrors those, it could influence investments for years. Should investors be concerned about declining valuations?

Lou Whiteman: Experts believe we're already experiencing effects worse than the Iraq War, where production capacity was largely unaffected. This time, the economic consequences are unavoidable, though the severity remains uncertain. Investors should brace for potential challenges, hoping for a rebound but preparing for prolonged difficulties.

Investor Sentiment and Market Corrections

Travis Hoium: The S&P 500 is down about 4% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ has dropped around 6%. The fear and greed index is signaling high fear. Should investors adjust their expectations?

Jon Quast: The fear and greed index is at its lowest in years. Many investors haven't experienced a major economic downturn, with a significant portion starting during the pandemic. Despite markets being only slightly off their highs, sentiment is low. It's crucial not to panic, as emotional decisions can harm financial outcomes. Stay calm, but recognize that conditions could worsen before improving.

Opportunities Amid Uncertainty

Travis Hoium: Many investors weren't active during previous downturns. It's important to remember that these moments don't call for panic selling, but rather for continued investment. How should we approach this as investors?

Safe Havens and Quality Stocks

Travis Hoium: When markets are volatile, people look for safe havens—large companies, gold, Bitcoin. Are there any true safe investments right now?

Jon Quast: In a severe downturn, there are no absolute safe havens. High oil prices impact discretionary spending and have secondary effects, such as increased costs for aluminum and disruptions in semiconductor production. I keep a watchlist of resilient companies like Waste Management, Costco, Tractor Supply, and Vistra Energy. These businesses tend to perform well over the long term, regardless of market conditions.

Lou Whiteman: In a deep recession, nearly all sectors suffer. The best advice is not to make long-term decisions based on short-term pain. If a company is fundamentally damaged, consider selling, but otherwise, focus on the long-term recovery. I prefer seeking opportunities outside consumer staples, looking for undervalued companies that can rebound. Maintain a balanced portfolio and look for businesses that will thrive once conditions improve.

Travis Hoium: I prioritize companies with strong balance sheets and positive cash flow. Some firms have plenty of cash but burn through it quickly. If a company holds a significant portion of its market cap in cash and generates profits, it can use that cash strategically, such as buying back shares during downturns. Jon, how do you view holding cash right now?

Jon Quast: Staying invested is vital, even though timing the market is impossible. I currently hold about 20% cash, which helps me stay patient and ready to seize opportunities during market turbulence. The rest remains invested for long-term growth.

Travis Hoium: I also add to my portfolio monthly, using dollar-cost averaging to reduce stress and ensure consistent investment. Next, we'll hear Jon and Lou's picks for their "final four" stocks.

March Madness: Stock Bracket Picks

With March Madness underway, Jon and Lou select their top four stocks from a list including Alphabet, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Palantir, Micron, Disney, Chipotle, and Rocket Lab.

Jon Quast: My final four are Amazon, Meta, Micron, and Rocket Lab. Amazon's valuation is attractive, and its cloud business is thriving. Meta remains highly profitable despite past spending. Micron is benefiting from strong demand for computer memory, and Rocket Lab is a personal favorite due to its space exploration focus.

Travis Hoium: Micron's recent revenue growth is impressive, nearly 200% in the last quarter. Gross margins have doubled, and demand outpaces supply. Rocket Lab is appealing for its innovation and growth potential.

Lou Whiteman: Like basketball, the established leaders tend to prevail. Microsoft is a constant winner, with diverse strengths. Alphabet is well-positioned to capitalize on AI. Amazon remains strong, though less exciting than before. Rocket Lab is a wildcard with significant future potential.

Travis Hoium: Nvidia, the world's largest company, has a compelling valuation and growth prospects. Jon, why choose Micron over Nvidia?

Jon Quast: Micron's success is closely tied to Nvidia's, as both benefit from AI chip demand. Micron has pivoted to focus on AI chips, and while my reasoning is inconsistent, both companies are strong performers.

Travis Hoium: Micron's forward price-to-earnings ratio is remarkably low, given its growth. Lou, thoughts on Nvidia?

Lou Whiteman: Nvidia is like UConn in basketball—periods of greatness followed by lulls. It's a solid long-term investment, but future growth may not match recent years.

Travis Hoium: Jon, who's your champion among your final four?

Jon Quast: Amazon is my top pick. Its cloud business and advertising division offer strong growth, and the current valuation is appealing.

Travis Hoium: Lou, your champion?

Lou Whiteman: I'm tempted by Rocket Lab, but I'll go with Alphabet for its leadership and innovation, likening it to the University of Houston in this analogy.

Meta's Metaverse Shift and Future Prospects

Travis Hoium: Meta is winding down its Metaverse project, Horizon Worlds. Should the company revert to its old name, Facebook?

Jon Quast: The name change was tied to the Metaverse focus, so returning to Facebook makes sense.

Lou Whiteman: "Meta" means "beyond" in Greek, so it could represent broader ambitions. Unless they want to follow Jack Dorsey's lead and use a symbol, it's best to stick with the current name and focus on business fundamentals.

Travis Hoium: Many companies changed names during the pandemic, possibly out of boredom.

Lou Whiteman: Executives had too much free time and couldn't travel, leading to creative decisions.

Travis Hoium: What should we know about Meta's ongoing projects?

Jon Quast: While Horizon Worlds is ending, Reality Labs continues with products like Oculus and Meta Ray-Ban glasses. Since 2021, Meta has spent about $80 billion on Reality Labs, generating only $10 billion in revenue. Despite massive investment, the Metaverse hasn't gained traction. Perhaps the technology isn't ready, or Meta was simply too early. Improved user experiences could change this, but for now, the concept hasn't succeeded.

Travis Hoium: Is cutting spending on the Metaverse a wise decision?

Lou Whiteman: Experiencing the Grand Canyon in person is far superior to a digital version. The Metaverse falls short, and with AI taking center stage, Meta is shifting focus. This move reflects broader industry trends.

Travis Hoium: Future financial disclosures may separate AI spending from Reality Labs, but it's unclear how Meta will report these investments going forward.

Stocks to Watch

Jon Quast: This week, I'm watching Celsius Holdings (CELH), the third-largest energy drink company after Monster and Red Bull. It owns Celsius, Alani Nu, and recently acquired Rockstar. Revenue grew 86% in 2025, partly due to acquisitions, but also organic growth. The focus for 2026 is integrating new brands and expanding through Pepsi's distribution network, which should boost profit margins. The stock is down 35% from its peak and trades at four times sales, half the valuation of Monster, despite stronger growth prospects.

Dan Boyd: I'm skeptical about energy drinks' health claims—water is always a better choice.

Lou Whiteman: Agreed, Dan.

Travis Hoium: As I sip a Wildberry Celsius, I'll take the opposing view.

Lou Whiteman: It's just carbonated tang.

Jon Quast: The drinks have few calories, which is puzzling given their flavor.

Dan Boyd: Don't question it.

Travis Hoium: Maybe it's magic—just enjoy it.

Lou Whiteman: Don't ask, just buy.

Dan Boyd: Lou, what's on your radar?

Lou Whiteman: I'm watching Planet Labs (PL), a satellite imaging company. Most Google Earth images come from Planet Labs. They recently reported strong results and secured 20 new government contracts averaging $170 million each, providing revenue stability. The commercial side is promising, with applications in agriculture, industry, and real-time mapping. The stock isn't cheap, but Planet Labs has outlined a compelling growth story.

Travis Hoium: Dan, thoughts on Planet Labs?

Dan Boyd: I find their work fascinating—capturing images of Earth from space. They launch many satellites via SpaceX, which is impressive.

Travis Hoium: Their website is simply planet.com, which is memorable.

Dan Boyd: It's a bit generic, considering there are many planets, but it's catchy.

Travis Hoium: Dan, which stock makes your watchlist?

Dan Boyd: I'll go with Planet Labs.

Travis Hoium: Congrats to Lou. Dan, better luck next time. Thanks for tuning in to Motley Fool Money. See you next time!