USD: Data resilience offsets geopolitical uncertainty – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts note that US yields flattened as geopolitical headlines from Iran and comments by Trump dominated sentiment. Strong ISM Manufacturing and Retail Sales data surprised to the upside, while they expect a below-consensus 30k payrolls print and unchanged unemployment. They also highlights firm February spending data and rising input costs linked to Oil and tariffs.

Solid data but payrolls seen softer

"The curve flattened on Wednesday, with news coming from Trump that we are going to be out of Iran quickly and will monitor Iran by satellite."

"Iran said that they will not open the Strait based on Trump's claims."

"ISM manufacturing came in higher than expected, while both headline and control group of retail sales also surprised to the upside."

"On Thursday, jobless claims will be released, but all focus continues to be on the Middle East and payrolls on Friday, where we expect a below consensus print of 30k and an unchanged UE rate."

"Fed's Bowman will be speaking as well as Logan, who could give some thoughts around bank reserves and the Fed's balance sheet."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)