Nvidia stock closed up 3.59% in the first week of April amid volatility; despite oil price shocks from geopolitical tensions, AI demand continues to drive bullish sentiment as risk aversion increases across the market.

Weekly Review

In the first week of April 2026 (March 31 to April 4, Saturday summary), the global market saw high volatility due to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, increased geopolitical risk, and major fluctuations in oil prices. US non-farm payrolls data was much stronger than expected, but the situation in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, fueling inflation fears and suppressing risk asset performance.

Nvidia (NVDA), as the leader in AI chips, experienced a pullback early in the week due to geopolitical tensions, but later rebounded as market risk appetite improved and expectations for AI demand provided support. The stock ended the week up around 3.59%, showing relatively stable performance among tech stocks, though remaining in a high-volatility range.

Stock Price Trend

This week, Nvidia’s share price dipped first and then rebounded. On March 31, it spiked 5.59% to close at $174.40, rose 0.77% on April 1 to $175.75, and continued upward by 0.93% on April 2 to close at $177.39. During the week, it hit a high of $177.49 and a low near $164.27.

Trading volume remained high throughout the week, with the largest single-day volume exceeding 226 million shares, reflecting intense capital competition. Although geopolitical conflicts raised concerns about supply chain costs, strong ongoing demand from AI data centers supported a recovery in the stock price.

Macroeconomic Background

This week, the US added 178,000 new jobs in March, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, while wage growth remained moderate. The robust labor data reinforced the resilience of the economy and also raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for a longer period.

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude prices soaring, driving up global energy costs and import-driven inflation risks. Oil price volatility directly increased the transportation costs in the semiconductor supply chain, applying short-term pressure to AI hardware manufacturers such as Nvidia.

Nevertheless, market expectations for controllable geopolitical risks gradually intensified, resulting in a recovery for risk assets. During the week, the S&P 500 Index rose about 3.2%, and the Nasdaq Index gained around 4.3%, with tech stocks overall rebounding.

Industry Impact

Nvidia's core data center business continues to benefit from the explosive demand for AI computing power. Fiscal year 2026 Q4 revenue reached $68.1 billion, up 73% year-on-year, with data center revenue of $62.3 billion, up 75%. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized at GTC 2026 that the "agent AI inflection point has arrived" and raised the combined order outlook for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips from $500 billion to $1 trillion.

Although geopolitical conflict has increased supply chain costs, Nvidia’s high gross margin (around 71%) and strong pricing power enable it to partially pass on these costs. The semiconductor sector as a whole is under pressure, but thanks to its leading position in AI, Nvidia outperforms its peers.

Technical Analysis

Technically, after holding a key support near $164 this week, Nvidia shares rebounded quickly to reclaim the $170 mark. Short-term moving averages are showing signs of a golden cross, but the price remains constrained by resistance at historical highs.

Rising volume alongside price gains indicate a recovery in bullish momentum. If a firm breakout above the $180 resistance occurs, further upside could follow; conversely, if oil prices remain high or inflation data beats expectations, the stock could retest the $165 support level.

Analyst Views

Wall Street analysts maintain a strong bullish consensus on Nvidia. The average 12-month target price is about $275.25, representing approximately 55% upside from the current price of $177.39. The highest target reaches $400, with the lowest at $205.

Several institutions have raised their target price, with Rosenblatt Securities maintaining a Buy rating with a $325 target and Raymond James raising theirs to $323. Analysts believe the long-term trend in AI infrastructure demand remains unchanged; short-term geopolitical volatility does not affect strong fundamentals.

Investment Insights

Nvidia showed resilience amid macro uncertainties this week, with AI demand still the core growth driver. However, elevated oil prices, inflation risk, and the Fed’s policy repricing remain short-term disturbances. Traders should be alert to the twin shocks to supply chain and demand that could result from any escalation in geopolitical tensions.

It is recommended to use the Golden Chart APP to monitor oil prices, US dollar index, and Treasury yields in real time. Pay attention to next week’s CPI data and Fed officials’ comments. Long-term investors can consider buying Nvidia on dips to leverage its AI leadership; for the short and medium-term, strict stop-losses and position control are needed to cope with a highly volatile environment.

Editor’s Summary

In the first week of April 2026, Nvidia’s stock ended modestly higher as the struggle between the US-Iran conflict’s oil price shock and strong AI demand played out. Market risk appetite recovered slightly with easing geopolitical concerns, and blowout non-farm payroll numbers further strengthened perceptions of economic resilience. Nvidia’s fundamentals remain solid, but supply chain cost pressures and the macro interest rate environment need close monitoring. Investors should balance short-term volatility risks against medium-to-long-term AI growth opportunities and respond rationally to a complex market environment.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why did Nvidia’s stock fall first and then rise this week?
Early in the week, increased US-Iran tensions, high oil prices, and supply chain cost concerns triggered a pullback; later on, market risk appetite improved and AI demand expectations provided support for a rapid rebound. On March 31, the stock surged 5.59% in a single day and posted a cumulative 3.59% weekly gain, with trading volume remaining high, reflecting fierce capital flows.

2. What is the actual impact of geopolitics on Nvidia?
The Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove up oil prices, directly increasing semiconductor transportation costs. However, Nvidia’s high gross margins and strong pricing power allow it to partially pass on costs. This creates short-term pressure, but with robust AI computing demand and rapid data center business growth, the long-term fundamentals are not fundamentally shaken.

3. Can AI demand still underpin Nvidia's high valuation?
Yes. In FY2026 Q4, data center revenue grew 75%, and Jensen Huang raised total orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips to $1 trillion. The agent AI inflection point has arrived, with enterprises and cloud vendors accelerating deployments, supporting a solid long-term growth logic.

4. Why do analysts maintain high price targets?
The Wall Street average price target is $275.25, about 55% higher than current levels. Multiple institutions have raised targets, citing exponential growth in AI infrastructure demand and Nvidia’s market leadership. Short-term volatility does not change the long-term trajectory.

5. What key factors should traders monitor this and next week?
Focus on oil price trends, developments in the Middle East, next week’s CPI and PPI data, statements from Fed officials, and changes in the US dollar index and Treasury yields. Use the Golden Chart APP for real-time AI signals, watch Nvidia’s key support ($165) and resistance ($180) levels, manage risk strictly, and seek certainty in the ongoing market battle.