Analysis: Bitcoin Demand Internalizes as On-Chain Metrics Show Retail and Whale Distribution

BlockBeats News, April 4th, a CryptoQuant analysis report shows that the current cryptocurrency market sentiment and fund flow are out of sync: the Fear & Greed Index is in the extreme fear range (8–14), but ETF net inflows in March exceeded $1 billion; the an exchange Premium Index remains negative, reflecting limited participation from U.S. institutions. Geopolitical turbulence (Iran conflict) has led to price fluctuations, with a wait-and-see market strategy, overall demand slowly receding rather than panic selling.

Despite a roughly 47% decline from its historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, much lower than the 85%+ crashes in 2013 and 2017, analyst Zack Wainwright pointed out that this is a sign of the Bitcoin market gradually maturing, with volatility gradually contracting.

Potential catalysts include: Morgan Stanley's approval of a low-fee Bitcoin ETF, providing access to $6.2 trillion managed by 16,000 financial advisors, and the ongoing purchase of 44,000 BTC per month by the Strategy STRC preferred stock product, which may provide stable buying pressure to the market. Short-term technical indicators show that if the Iran conflict eases, Bitcoin could rebound to $71,500–$81,200.

Combining relevant indicators, CryptoQuant's conclusion is: internal demand in the Bitcoin market is contracting, with current price support relying on institutional ETFs, Strategy, and new channels continuing to absorb selling pressure from retail and large hodlers.