Brazil-based cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin has published a new analysis highlighting Bitcoin’s performance during recent global crises, suggesting that the digital asset has outpaced traditional safe-haven investments such as gold and the S&P 500 index. Drawing on data from a range of economic and geopolitical shocks, the report indicates that Bitcoin frequently delivered higher returns than these conventional assets in the aftermath of major disruptions.
Asset performance in the aftermath of crises
Rony Szuster, a research lead at one of Latin America’s leading crypto platforms, spearheaded the study. The analysis examined 60-day periods following key events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of broad U.S. import tariffs, to compare asset performances. The report found that in both cases, Bitcoin outperformed gold and the S&P 500, delivering superior returns during these turbulent windows.
For instance, in the two months after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs in April 2023, Bitcoin surged by 24 percent. Over the same stretch, gold’s price climbed by eight percent, while the S&P 500 gained four percent. The early days of the COVID-19 pandemic yielded a similar pattern: in March 2020, Bitcoin appreciated by 21 percent, whereas gold and S&P 500 lagged behind.
The report also points out that in times of economic shock, investors typically move to liquidate holdings to secure cash, leading to drawdowns not just in riskier assets, but also temporary declines in traditional safe havens like gold. Market turbulence often triggers widespread selloffs, regardless of the perceived safety of the asset.
Recent developments and Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory
Amid the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin has stood out as the only asset among Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500 to generate positive returns. According to the analysis, since the escalation of the conflict, Bitcoin has appreciated by more than 2.2 percent. During that period, gold lost approximately 11 percent in value, and the S&P 500 dropped by 4.4 percent—its steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Szuster cautioned that drawing quick conclusions based on immediate post-crisis asset performance can be misleading, underlining the importance of adopting a longer-term perspective.
Making a judgment about the whole story after only watching its opening scenes can be deceptive. Szuster likened this to following the initial moments of a film before deciding how it ends. He observed that, during crises, investors often close positions to meet liquidity needs, leading to temporary pressure not just on risk assets but on presumed safe havens as well.
The research further suggests that while Bitcoin prices can experience sharp swings during periods of geopolitical stress or crisis, the cryptocurrency often demonstrates a tendency toward recovery afterward. This pattern of resilience was again apparent during the latest U.S.-Iran tensions.
Looking at the broader picture, Szuster concluded that, over the past decade, Bitcoin has ranked as the highest-yielding asset, based on the available data.
