Nasdaq and S&P rise for four consecutive days: storage chips rally, Tesla under pressure, crude oil holds above $110

On Monday Eastern Time, Wall Street managed to close higher amid tense geopolitical atmosphere. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to close at 46,669.88; the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.54%, closing at 21,996.34; and the S&P 500 gained 0.44%, ending at 6,611.83. Notably, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved four consecutive days of gains, highlighting the market’s resilience despite uncertainty.

However, midday calm was shattered by tough rhetoric from the White House. US President Trump issued a final ultimatum at a press conference, stating that if Iran failed to meet US demands by 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7, the United States would launch a devastating attack against Iran’s civilian infrastructure. He claimed there was a plan capable of completely destroying every bridge and power plant in Iran within only four hours. This extreme threat sent all three major indices sharply lower intraday and dramatically heightened market risk aversion.

In response, Iran has delivered, via Pakistan, a proposal to the US containing 10 terms, with core demands including permanent cessation of conflict, establishing a safe passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, post-war reconstruction, and the lifting of sanctions. Iran ruled out any prospect of a temporary ceasefire. Trump commented that the proposal was “meaningful but not good enough.” The tug-of-war over control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a Damocles’ sword hanging over the global economy.

Geopolitical risks were directly transmitted to the commodity market. International oil prices surged, with the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil May contract settling up 0.78% at $112.41 per barrel; the Brent crude oil June contract rose 0.90% to $110.05 per barrel. The market is concerned that if the Strait remains blocked, it will severely impact the global energy supply chain. Wells Fargo Investment Institute warned that the risk of war escalation remains high for weeks to come, and rising oil prices are driving up transportation and fertilizer costs, posing challenges for economies reliant on energy imports. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also pointed out that supply chain disruptions may cause inflation and interest rates to remain higher than anticipated.

Back in the stock market, sectors and individual stocks showed significant divergence. Major tech stocks were mixed—Amazon, Apple, and Google all gained over 1%, providing key support to the indexes. However, electric vehicle giant Tesla fell 2.15% against the trend, becoming the market focus. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman lowered the company’s earnings forecast and issued a stern warning that Tesla’s share price could face as much as 60% further downside, urging investors to proceed with caution.

In sharp contrast, the storage chip sector was strong. Seagate Technology’s share price soared 5.58%, at one point surging over 9% intraday. Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to “top pick,” raising the target price sharply from $468 to $582. Western Digital, Micron Technology, and SanDisk all gained over 3%, helping the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index close up 1.32%. In addition, Broadcom announced a long-term agreement with Google for the development and supply of tensor processing units, with the cooperation lasting through 2031, providing long-term certainty for artificial intelligence computing power demand.

Chinese concept stocks were generally flat, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index edging down 0.21%. Individual stocks showed dramatic volatility—Xiao-i Robot’s share price soared over 515% against the trend and continued to climb after hours, becoming a market spectacle. By contrast, leading stocks like Alibaba, Baidu, and JD saw small fluctuations.

On the economic data front, US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was released on Monday, dropping from 56.1 to 54.0, indicating a slowing pace of expansion and contraction in the employment sub-index. Of greater concern, the prices paid index, which measures inflationary pressure, surged to its highest level since October 2022. ING analysis noted that this shows business caution is rising after intensifying Middle East tensions.

In the face of a complex situation, institutional views are divided. Goldman Sachs noted in its report that “fast money” selling has been slowing, and the firm may see net purchases of about $55 billion in assets over the next month. Senior strategist Ed Yardeni believes that after a correction, tech stocks have become attractive again for long-term investors. However, more voices cautioned vigilance. Angeles Investments Chief Investment Officer Michael Rosen stated bluntly that the market may be underestimating the direct and medium-term impact of energy supply disruptions, implying energy prices could stay higher for longer. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach warned that if the Strait of Hormuz dispute drags on into May or June, it will significantly worsen both US and global economic prospects.