Polymarket prices Trump's Iran ceasefire at 3%

Polymarket traders are pricing only a 3% chance that a US-Iran ceasefire will be reached by April 7, reflecting deeply pessimistic market sentiment.

The low probability follows Iran’s rejection of a 45-day ceasefire proposal, instead demanding a permanent and guaranteed end to hostilities.

Traders have gradually increased longer-term odds, with ceasefire probabilities rising to 15% by mid-April and 59% by the end of June.

Prediction markets also show continued disruption to global energy flows, with only a 14% chance that Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal by April 30.

Oil markets are reflecting the same outlook, with Polymarket assigning a 77% probability that WTI crude reaches $120 in April.

The data suggests traders expect the conflict to persist, with elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk likely to weigh on global markets.

The persistent low odds indicate that, unless sentiment shifts sharply, markets are bracing for extended instability rather than a near-term resolution.