Bitcoin holds above $71,000 amid US economic slowdown and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz

White House and Iran weigh options amid regional uncertainty

Senior White House advisor Kevin Hassett projected that the US economy could still achieve 4 to 5 percent growth annually, even during the current conflict. Citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Hassett argued that President Trump has the authority to impose up to 50 percent tariffs on countries supplying arms to Iran—a measure, he indicated, could add to inflationary pressure. Outlining White House priorities, Hassett touched on global trade restrictions, monetary policy, and oil market developments.

“If countries assist our adversaries, Trump will respond—up to a 50% tariff is within his power. Interest rates ought to be lower, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet should shrink gradually. Ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and if the strait fully reopens, I expect oil markets to normalize soon. Asia is under considerable strain due to dwindling oil supplies, whereas the US has felt much less impact. Once the Strait of Hormuz opens, gasoline prices should fall swiftly. We have consulted with allies to ensure secure supplies of US oil.”

According to diplomats, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has asked member states for concrete commitments to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz, as President Trump is expected to seek further assurances within days. Notably, Trump has regularly voiced divergent views on NATO in recent years, heightening intrigue around the alliance’s next steps.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the ceasefire between the US and Iran as “fragile,” warning that the alternatives remain bleak if negotiations falter. Her comments reflect European concerns over escalating instability in the region.

A TASS report citing senior Iranian officials revealed that, under the terms of the ceasefire, only a maximum of 15 ships per day will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The measure is aimed at limiting risk while enabling some commercial activity to resume.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister provided additional context on current diplomatic efforts:

“Our delegation will attend peace talks in Islamabad. The US must stop Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Any comprehensive peace must include Lebanon, and in the coming hours, we expect critical developments. Last night, Iran was prepared to respond to a ceasefire violation, but Pakistan intervened to de-escalate.”

These developments underscore prevailing caution, both in diplomatic circles and financial markets, as Bitcoin continues to hover above $71,000 with a note of cautious optimism.

Market caution persists for Bitcoin

Yesterday saw $93 million in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, continuing a trend of sell-offs that began on April 7. With the ceasefire’s fragility, further exits could occur, yet the spot price has held above the crucial $71,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s price has been oscillating within a range for 67 consecutive days, occasionally edging toward a breakout yet failing to establish support above mid-range levels. For a test of $75,800 to materialize, Bitcoin must first close the week above $70,000. While support has been tested twice at the channel’s lower boundary, resistance at the upper band has been reached only once in this period.

A rapid reversal of the declines that have persisted since early February likely depends on two key factors: the swift end of the conflict and the appointment of Warsh as Fed Chair next month, with anticipation of an accelerated quantitative easing program. If these fail to materialize, deeper lows below $60,000 remain in play for Bitcoin. The previous channel took 79 days to break, suggesting Bitcoin is running short on time for an upward move.