International Perspective on the Economy: April 2026

Middle East Tensions Continue to Impact Global Outlook

The recently announced ceasefire in the Middle East remains unstable, sustaining elevated regional risks. While our base case expects the conflict to wind down by mid-year and oil prices to ease through the second half of 2026, ongoing geopolitical tensions make the forecast highly uncertain.

Persistently high oil prices, stricter financial conditions, and growing policy unpredictability are increasing the likelihood of weaker global growth in 2026. As a result, we have revised our global GDP projection for 2026 down to 2.7%, which is lower than both last month's estimate and pre-conflict levels.

The fragile truce—marked by ongoing disputes over terms and frequent accusations of violations—means the risk of further oil price spikes remains present.