US-Iran and Israel-Palestine negotiations advance on dual fronts, CPI assists, multiple positives for gold

Huitong Finance April 10—— US-Iran + Lebanon-Israel negotiations advancing on two fronts! CPI below expectations, spot gold bottoms out and rebounds from 4773, weak dollar + Federal Reserve rate cut expectations + central bank gold holding for 17 consecutive months underpin gold prices, is a rebound coming?

On Friday (April 10) during the US and European sessions, spot gold staged a minor bottoming out and rebound, currently up 0.16% and trading near 4773, US-Iran talks are still progressing smoothly, market risk appetite continues to recover, and with CPI below expectations and the latest signals from the Federal Reserve downplaying one-off inflation, the market is increasing bets on a single rate cut within the year, and gold is expected to regain its upward logic.

Meanwhile, on April 10, Qassem gave a public speech at 20:00 (UTC+8), declaring "We will resist until our last breath, urging officials to stop making futile concessions."

Israeli soldiers were defeated on the ground and unable to launch a ground invasion.

They were caught off guard by the flexibility, resistance tactics, defensive abilities, and legendary courage of Hezbollah militants.

Qassem stated that they will stand united to defend the country, restore national sovereignty, and expel the occupiers. “Israel’s threats and weapons do not frighten us, because we are the rightful owners of this land.”





Meanwhile, new arrangements have emerged in Middle East diplomacy. According to Arab media AsharqNews, Israel and Lebanon’s ceasefire negotiations will be initiated before the US-Iran talks, with both parties holding a preparatory conference call on the same day. Participants included Israeli Ambassador to Washington Nada Hamad Muawad, Yeshiel Leit, US Ambassador to Lebanon Michele Issa, and US State Department Policy Planning Director Mike Needham. A face-to-face Lebanon-Israel meeting is scheduled for Tuesday at 10:00 (UTC+8), hosted by the Lebanese ambassador. These talks are led by US Secretary of State Rubio and are entirely independent from the US-Iran talks to be held in Islamabad.

US Pushes Multiple Agendas: Pressuring Israel, Coordinating Allies, and Easing Sanctions

The US is fully advancing the US-Iran negotiation process. Trump has explicitly demanded Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reduce military strikes against Lebanon to clear the way for the negotiations.



On April 9 local time, UK Prime Minister Starmer had a phone conversation with Trump, focusing on the swift resumption of strait shipping. Trump stated that oil flows would soon resume regardless of Iranian cooperation and reiterated that Iran would never acquire nuclear weapons.

In addition, US financial media Semafor reported that the Trump administration will continue to ease sanctions on Russian oil, and the Prime Minister of Greenland also stated that Trump's intention to take over or control Greenland has not been abandoned.

Lebanon-Israel Conflict Unresolved: Negotiations and Military Actions Proceed in Parallel

The Israel-Lebanon border conflict is ongoing, and while hostilities have lessened on Friday, the Israeli military has not ceased operations.

Previously, Israel launched its largest airstrike on Lebanon to date, causing at least 300 deaths and 1,150 injuries. Although Netanyahu announced that he had instructed the cabinet to immediately start ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon, he also emphasized that Israeli forces would continue to strike Hezbollah, and the Israeli chief of staff stated that large-scale military operations could resume at any time.

Lebanese Prime Minister Aoun welcomed the negotiation proposal, but Beirut insists it will not negotiate under attack and demands a comprehensive ceasefire as a precondition, while Hezbollah, which holds seats in the Lebanese parliament, has explicitly refused to negotiate with Israel, making the basis for talks extremely fragile.



Israel's continued bombing of Lebanon has been deemed by Iran as a serious violation of the US-Iran agreement. Iran has threatened a forceful response, pushing the temporary US-Iran ceasefire to the brink of collapse.

There are significant differences between the US and Iran on whether Lebanon should be included in the ceasefire agreement. Both Iran and Pakistan maintain that the ceasefire covers Lebanon, yet the US has repeatedly denied this, and its shifting stance has further destabilized the regional situation.

CPI Below Expectations, Sharp Contraction in Consumption

US core annual inflation rate (excluding food and energy) for March edged up to 2.6% from 2.5% in the previous two months, but was slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Service sector inflation excluding energy services was 3%, including 3% for residential inflation, 4.1% for transport services, and 3.7% for medical services.

Meanwhile, core goods inflation excluding food and energy was 2.6%. Clothing prices rose 3.4%, offsetting the 3.2% decline in used car and truck prices.

Gold Logic Shift: As Geopolitical Risk Fades, Three Major Drivers Support a Rebound

With US-Iran negotiations proceeding in an orderly manner and separate Lebanon-Israel ceasefire talks starting, the market impact of Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ease, and short-term safe-haven buying in gold is gradually subsiding. However, medium- and long-term bullish logic for gold is rapidly returning.



From a technical perspective, spot gold prices are above the 5-day moving average, the rising trend line, and the Fibonacci 0.618 level—these three strong supports, and gold is expected to rebound further based on them.


(Spot gold daily chart, Source: YiHuitong under Huitong Finance)

20:56 (UTC+8), spot gold is quoted at $4771.31/oz.