Wall Street and Main Street show increased optimism toward gold following the Iran ceasefire agreement, yet investors stay cautious as the peace remains fragile

Gold Market Reacts to Iran Ceasefire Developments

Recent headlines surrounding the conflict between Iran and the United States have continued to influence gold prices, with the announcement of a ceasefire sparking a surge in the market. Despite this, traders remain cautious, uncertain whether the truce will last long enough to justify significant investments.

Spot gold began the week at $4,630.61 per ounce, quickly reaching its weekly low near $4,600 shortly after trading opened Sunday evening. Overnight, gold prices rebounded, peaking above $4,700 before losing steam during the North American session. By Monday night, gold had slipped back to $4,626 and continued to fluctuate within a tight range as investors awaited President Trump’s Tuesday deadline for a potential deal with Iran.

Tuesday’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire triggered a sharp rally, with gold jumping from $4,662 at mid-afternoon to $4,835 by the evening. However, after encountering resistance early Wednesday, the price retreated, settling near $4,700 before the close of equity markets.

Gold has since entered a period of consolidation, trading between $4,700 and $4,800 for the remainder of the week. While the upper limit of $4,800 remained intact, the lower boundary gradually rose, giving traders optimism for the coming week.

Market Sentiment and Analyst Perspectives

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey indicates renewed interest from both Wall Street and Main Street following the ceasefire and gold’s three-week winning streak.

• Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, expects gold to continue its upward movement, though he notes the path may be uneven. He attributes the recent drop to Turkey’s sale and swap of nearly 120 tons of gold.
• Day believes gold is positioned to benefit regardless of the outcome: if peace holds, monetary factors will drive prices; if conflict resumes, gold’s safe-haven appeal will strengthen.
• Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, predicts a short-term peak for gold futures, suggesting momentum may shift downward. He cautions that technical analysis and fundamentals offer limited guidance in the current climate, as central banks continue to buy gold amid global instability.
• Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International, argues that the recent sell-off was excessive and anticipates a move toward $5,000 and higher. However, he warns that renewed conflict or liquidity issues could trigger another decline.
• Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, prefers to stay out of the gold market for now, citing the metal’s transition into a broad trading range after a substantial rally. He sees gold fluctuating between $4,400 and $5,200, with ongoing uncertainty making short-term predictions difficult.

Cieszynski notes that gold’s recent surge may have already factored in inflation expectations, and rising prices could complicate central banks’ ability to lower interest rates, potentially leading to stagflation. He maintains a neutral outlook, emphasizing the unpredictability of gold’s direction in the near term.

Survey Results: Wall Street and Main Street Outlook

According to the Kitco News Gold Survey, 14 analysts participated this week. Seven (50%) expect gold prices to rise during the ceasefire, two (14%) foresee a decline, and five (36%) remain neutral. In Kitco’s online poll, 51 retail investors weighed in: 32 (63%) anticipate higher prices, 10 (20%) predict a drop, and 9 (18%) expect gold to move sideways.

Upcoming Economic Data and Gold Price Trends

The week ahead offers limited economic releases, but key manufacturing surveys and housing data will be closely watched. Traders are also monitoring whether producer price inflation will mirror the recent CPI increase.

• Monday: U.S. existing home sales for March
• Tuesday: March PPI report
• Wednesday: Empire State manufacturing survey
• Thursday: Weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey

Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, highlights gold’s strong performance, nearly reaching $4,857 last week. He suggests a move above $4,915 could signal a retest of $5,000. Chandler also notes that while Turkey and Russia have sold gold, China’s central bank acquired another 5 tons in March, and Poland continues to buy.

John Weyer, director at Walsh Trading, advises caution with gold and silver, given their volatility. He expects more capital to flow into metals amid inflation concerns, but believes geopolitical factors, especially the Iran situation, are currently more influential than economic data.

Weyer anticipates gold will resume its gradual climb as the ceasefire period progresses, with buyers likely returning as the deadline approaches.

Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, forecasts continued strength for gold, noting its consistent uptrend since the March crash. He observes that the price often rebounds from the lower boundary of its trading channel, currently around $4,750, with potential to reach $5,200.

From a technical standpoint, Kuptsikevich points out that the 200-day moving average has supported the upward trend, while the 50-day moving average is lowering the threshold for confirming bullish momentum.

Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects gold prices to decline next week unless certain technical formations are breached. He provides detailed analysis of various price levels and projections, indicating that the market may be entering a bearish correction.

Kitco senior analyst Jim Wyckoff observes that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is largely holding, but President Trump’s demand for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, amid ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah, complicates peace negotiations.

Wyckoff identifies key technical levels for June gold futures: bulls aim for a close above $5,000, while bears target a drop below $4,500. Resistance is noted at $4,800 and $4,888, with support at $4,750 and $4,700. He rates the market at 6.0.

As of the latest update, spot gold was trading at $4,749.45 per ounce, marking a 0.18% weekly loss and a 0.37% daily decline.