Rubber prices fall for the fourth consecutive session, slipping into an era of oversupply as the new tapping season and geopolitical risk erode bullish positions

汇通财经2026/04/13 10:07

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The Osaka Exchange's September rubber contract closed down by 0.7 yen at 390.3 yen per kilogram on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of declines. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's September natural rubber contract also fell 245 yuan to 16,795 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.44%.
In Thailand, the benchmark export-grade smoked sheet rubber and standard rubber spot prices dropped by 2.05% and 1.48% respectively. The persistent weakening of physical market quotes has become the main source of pressure dragging down futures, as the market is gradually digesting expected supply increases with the resumption of the tapping season in major producing countries.
Although rubber tapping progress in China’s Hainan region has been delayed due to a heat wave, providing temporary price support, the trend of a full return to tapping cycles in Southeast Asia’s main production regions is irreversible, and a marginally looser supply structure has already been established.
The collapse of US-Iran negotiations combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a surge in crude oil prices, but unlike in the past, this did not push up natural rubber prices via synthetic rubber cost transmission. Instead, a sharp reduction in investor risk appetite led to a systemic withdrawal of funds from the commodity markets.
Near-month rubber contracts on the Singapore Exchange also moved lower to 202.6 US cents per kilogram. The synchronous decline across the three major exchanges indicates that this adjustment is not a single-market phenomenon but a collective response by the global rubber pricing system to both supply returns and heightened macro risk aversion.
Going forward, vigilance is needed regarding the potential cost-pushing effects of persistently high crude oil prices on synthetic rubber and butadiene rubber. The butadiene rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange tumbled 2.68% on the day, suggesting that the market is still trading on demand suppression, and the balance of costs and demand has not yet tilted toward the bulls.

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Rubber prices fall for the fourth consecutive session, slipping into an era of oversupply as the new tapping season and geopolitical risk erode bullish positions

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