Huatai Futures: US-Iran Negotiations Continue, Precious Metal Prices Rebound

Source: Huatai Futures

Author: Shi Cheng

Market Analysis

Geopolitical easing signals released again: On April 14, the US State Department issued a statement after a tripartite meeting between Israel, Lebanon, and the US in Washington, saying the parties had “productive” discussions on measures to promote direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. All sides agreed to formally launch direct talks at a time and place determined by Israel and Lebanon. Regarding US-Iran relations, US President Trump told the New York Post on the 14th that talks with Iran may be held in Pakistan “in the next two days.” Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on the 14th, lowering its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The report noted that the Middle East conflict has significantly impacted current global economic momentum, and if the conflict and high oil prices persist, global economic growth this year could drop to 2.5% or even lower.

Futures Market and Trading Volume:

On 2026-04-14, the main SHFE gold contract opened at 1043.02 CNY/g and closed at 1052.82 CNY/g, up 0.90% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. During the previous night session, the main gold contract opened at 1050.00 CNY/g and closed at 1064.32 CNY/g, up 1.10% from the previous afternoon close.

On 2026-04-14, the main SHFE silver contract opened at 18,320.00 CNY/kg and closed at 19,210.00 CNY/kg, up 4.24% from the previous trading day close. The trading volume was 641,526 contracts, with open interest at 248,842 contracts. In the previous night session, the main silver contract opened at 19,180 CNY/kg and closed at 19,660 CNY/kg, up 2.34% from the previous afternoon close.

US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring:

On 2026-04-14, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.244%, a change of -4.74BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.499%, a change of -2.84BP from the previous day.

SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes:

On 2026-04-14, for Au2606 contracts, long positions changed by 1,352 lots, while short positions changed by -89 lots from the previous day. The total trading volume for SHFE gold contracts was 266,443, a decrease of -3.60% compared to the previous day. In the case of SHFE silver, for Ag2606 contracts, long positions changed by 6,419 lots, short positions by 10,339 lots. The total trading volume for the contracts was 984,875, a change of 4.20% from the previous day.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:

In the precious metals ETF sector, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,047.19 tons yesterday, down by 5.23 tons from the previous day. Silver ETF holdings were 15,272 tons, down by 19 tons from the previous day.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:

Futures-spot spread: On 2026-04-14, the domestic gold premium was -3.37 CNY/g yesterday, while the domestic silver premium was -324.03 CNY/kg. Gold-silver ratio: The price ratio of the main SHFE gold and silver contracts yesterday was about 54.81, down -3.20% from the previous day, while the international gold-silver ratio was 63.42, a change of -1.55% from the prior day.

Fundamentals:

According to Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market monitoring on the last trading day (2026-04-14), gold trading volume was 41,742 kg, down -11.63% compared to the previous day. Silver trading volume was 273,386 kg, down -12.02% from the previous day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and silver delivery volume was 2,430 kg.

Strategy

Gold: Cautiously Bullish

Progress in the US-Iran and Israel-Lebanon war negotiations has eased market risk sentiment; gold prices are expected to remain in a fluctuating to strong pattern in the near future, with the Au2606 contract likely moving within the 1,020–1,100 CNY/g range.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish

With apparent progress in the war negotiations and improving market risk sentiment, together with the normalization of silver squeezes, silver prices are expected to rise under a backdrop of better risk appetite; silver prices are also expected to remain fluctuating and strong, with Ag2606 contract likely fluctuating between 19,000–21,500 CNY/kg.

Arbitrage: Sell gold-silver ratio on rallies

Options: On hold for now

Risk

Overseas liquidity risk

Speculative positions continue to exit

Investment consulting business license: CSRC Permit [2011] No.1289

Editor: Zhu Henan