Bernstein: The U.S. prediction market could reach $1 trillion by 2030

Jinse Finance reported that on April 15, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani currently projects total market trading volume will reach $240 billion in 2026, a 370% year-on-year increase. He expects that during 2025 to 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 80%, annual trading volume is forecast to reach $1 trillion by the start of the next decade. Chhugani believes that increased regulatory clarity at the federal level will drive the market’s growth potential, while blockchain tokenization and integration with digital currencies are boosting liquidity. He also stated that the structure of trading contracts may also change. He wrote: "We expect the institutional market to develop around economic, commercial, and political contracts as investors seek more direct and explicit exposure to events." Currently, sports contracts account for more than 60% of trading volume, but he expects this proportion to halve by 2030. "We also anticipate that enterprises as well as insurers facing specific event risks will generate hedging demand."