Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds steady near $4,850 amid hopes of new peace talks

Gold’s (XAU/USD) nurses minor gains in an “inside day” on Thursday, trading at around $4,820, with price action constrained within Wednesday’s ranges. Hopes of new peace talks between the US and Iran keep precious metals buoyed, but the XAU/USD pair is failing to break resistance at the $4,850 area.

US President Donald Trump boosted market sentiment on Wednesday by confirming that negotiations with Tehran are underway and expressing confidence that the peace talks might resume in the coming days.

Investors’ optimism, however, has been curbed as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues. The US Central Command (Centcom) announced on Wednesday that it has closed traffic in and out of Iran’s ports, in an attempt to force Tehran to close a deal. In response, Iran’s military threatened to shut sea traffic in the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman, casting doubts about the ongoing ceasefire.

Technical Analysis: Above $4,850, the target is the $5,000 area

XAU/USD maintains a near-term bullish bias, but price action remains capped below the top of the last two weeks' horizontal channel at around $4,850.

Momentum indicators are showing mixed trends. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is hovering around 59, in positive territory, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at consolidation rather than a clear reversal.

Bulls need to break resistance at the $4,850 area (April 8, 14 and 15 highs), which would expose a previous support-turned-resistance right above $5,000. Further up, the next upside target would be the March 10 high at $5,235.

On the downside, Wednesday's lows right below $4,800 are holding bears for now. The key support level, however, is the bottom of the recent range around $4,600. A confirmation below here would negate the bullish view and add pressure toward the March 26 lows at the $4,350 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)