EUR/PLN: Drifts lower as NBP on hold – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts note that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate at 3.75% and markets expect no further changes through 2026. Governor Glapinski’s press conference is expected to be uneventful unless he sounds very hawkish. EUR/PLN is drifting towards 4.22 after reversing its conflict-driven spike, while Polish bonds still trade well above pre-conflict yields.

Steady policy and bond lag

"In CEE [Central and Eastern European] , the NBP left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% and markets are pricing no change from the NBP for the rest of 2026."

"NBP governor Glapinski’s press conference should be a non-event unless he comes across as extremely hawkish today."

"EUR/PLN is quietly drifting towards 4.22, fully giving up the ME [Middle East] conflict driven spike but the Polish bonds have a long way ahead for recovery with the 10y POLGB still about 65bp about the pre-conflict level of 4.92%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)