Citi: Oil prices will continue to fluctuate sharply, awaiting clarity on US-Iran agreement

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on May 7 that Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citigroup, stated that until it becomes clear whether Iran and Trump can reach an agreement, oil prices will continue to experience severe volatility. “It is difficult to predict whether Iran will reach an agreement; in this environment, where you simply don't know if a deal will happen, the market will inevitably be driven by the news and will see significant fluctuations.” On Thursday, crude oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. Layton said that this decline was partly due to “the market hoping both sides could start negotiating.” However, the physical oil market in the Middle East remains under pressure. Traders reported that in April, a key oil loading terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz in Oman experienced shipment delays, disrupting transportation plans and potentially postponing deliveries to buyers. Layton noted that over the past 12 months, the global physical oil market has accumulated about 700 million to 800 million barrels of “considerable buffer stocks.” “We are quickly depleting these inventories,” he said, but their impact “will manifest gradually over a longer period.” He added that before making a real adjustment to oil price forecasts, he needs to see whether Iran is ready to seriously reach an agreement with the United States. Last month, after the second round of US-Iran peace talks failed to take place, Citigroup raised its Brent crude oil benchmark price forecast by $15 to $110 per barrel and delayed the expected reopening time for the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May.```