The conflict between the US and Iran supports the US dollar, while the market is wary of intervention risks and the yen struggles to hold steady.
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- The US and Iran have clashed again. US crude oil in early trading on Friday once rose by 3% from Thursday’s settlement price to $98.64 per barrel, and is currently trading near $95.74 per barrel. The US Dollar Index is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 98.24, holding on to Thursday’s gains and is likely to end the week flat.
- The Head of Research at Pepperstone said that a US-Iran peace agreement is by no means straightforward, and traders need to reassess the direction of the conflict and expectations for Strait navigation. The Non-Farm Payrolls data needs to be “exceptionally weak” in order to trigger volatility in the US dollar.
- GBP is quoted at 1.3555 and is expected to post its first weekly loss; the euro remains steady at 1.1727 and is set to close the week slightly higher; both AUD and NZD are likely to see weekly gains.
- The US dollar is basically steady against the yen around 156.81 and may end the week with a slight decline. Japan’s Finance Minister stated that there are no limits on intervention frequency, maintains daily communication with the US, and is ready to enter markets at any time to support the yen.
- Analysts pointed out: “Given the current context of high energy prices and rising yields, Japan’s intervention can only function as a seatbelt to slow the yen’s decline, but cannot completely restore it to a safe range. Unless macro or technical conditions change, the yen is likely to continue testing the Bank of Japan’s resolve.”
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