Breaking the May curse? Investment bank Oppenheimer proposes a new strategy: Sell in July to prepare for significant buying in October

Glonghui, May 9th｜For a long time, "sell in May and go away" has been a seasonal investment adage in Wall Street. Since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has posted an average gain of only 2.1% from May to October, far below the average gain of 7% from November to April of the following year. However, in 2026, a key variable changes the situation: it will be a "midterm election year" under a "second-term president." The renowned Wall Street investment bank Oppenheimer believes that in 2026, investors should “Sell in July for a Big October Buy.” Oppenheimer's technical analysts point out that although midterm election years are usually accompanied by market volatility, under a second-term president, prolonged market weakness is relatively uncommon. According to their analysis, in the midterm election year under a second-term president, the S&P 500 index typically follows a certain pattern: First half of the year: the stock market tends to rebound continuously until April; Mid-year: the rally starts to cool down around July; Third quarter: a seasonal correction occurs; Year-end: the third quarter correction paves the way for a strong rally in the upcoming pre-election year.