Bitunix Analyst: Market Remains Cautious Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls, BTC's $80,000 Liquidity Support Fails on Retest

BlockBeats reports that on May 9, market focus has fully shifted to the upcoming release of the US April non-farm payrolls data tonight. The market expects non-farm payrolls to increase by 62,000, significantly lower than the previous figure of 178,000, reflecting a gradual cooling of the US labor market. However, the latest ADP "small non-farm" payrolls increased by 109,000, higher than market expectations, prompting the market to reassess whether the employment market remains resilient.

Currently, the market is more concerned not about whether the economy will immediately enter a recession, but about whether the "low hiring, low layoffs" structure will continue. If the unemployment rate remains low and wage growth remains sticky, the Federal Reserve will have greater room to keep interest rates high for a longer period. Recently, Federal Reserve officials including Harker and Collins have also continued to signal a bias toward maintaining unchanged interest rates.

In terms of geopolitics, although the US and Iran have once again engaged in skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides still preserve space for negotiation. The US has emphasized it has no intention to escalate the situation, and Middle Eastern media have reported that the US and Iran have reached some consensus on certain maritime blockade issues, temporarily easing market concerns about a full-blown conflict. Crude oil prices have retreated to around $95, but domestic gasoline prices in the US remain high, indicating that energy inflationary pressures have not been fully alleviated.

In the crypto market, yesterday BTC fell below 80,000. According to liquidation heatmaps, there is substantial liquidity at $78,000, and a break below may trigger further liquidations. However, the $82,000 to $83,000 range above also has dense short liquidity, indicating that the short-term market remains in a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears.