Over $3 trillion in crypto faces quantum hacking risk by 2030

Quantum threat looms large for digital assets

Project Eleven, a company specializing in quantum-resistant security solutions for the digital asset and crypto ecosystem, recently announced a collaboration with the Solana Foundation in this field. The organization’s report notes that almost all cryptocurrencies today are secured with elliptic curve signature algorithms, a structure that experts warn could prove vulnerable to quantum computers.

The risks outlined in the report extend far beyond cryptocurrencies. It states that the same cryptographic infrastructure also protects global banking systems, cloud infrastructure, authentication networks, and even military communication systems. In other words, the potential quantum threat is by no means limited to major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“Based on current trends, it is likely that Q-Day—the date when quantum-capable computers will break existing cryptographic defenses—will occur before 2033, and possibly as early as 2030. The window for a transition to post-quantum encryption is closing worldwide,” the Project Eleven report warns.

Time and coordination challenges for transition

The report underlines that for large and complex digital systems, such a security transition can take over five to ten years. Moreover, this is not just a technical shift, but requires broad coordination. Simultaneous migration will need to occur across users, exchanges, custodians, wallet software developers, and miners.

The document stresses that technical problems are not the fundamental issue: the real challenge lies in acting swiftly enough on a global scale, allocating the required resources, and ensuring institutional cooperation and commitment.

Extra hurdles for Bitcoin’s resilience

According to report authors Alex Pruden and Conor Deegan, Bitcoin presents particular difficulties for upgrading security standards. They highlight that even the SegWit upgrade took more than two years and led to major schisms. Given Bitcoin’s decentralized structure, its transition to new encryption standards could be slower than comparable systems.

Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden further notes that Bitcoin’s migration to post-quantum cryptography may prove even more challenging than the recent Taproot update. He emphasizes that exchanges, users, custodians, and miners must act in an organized fashion for a successful upgrade.

Pruden highlights that between 5.6 and 6.9 million BTC—currently worth about $500 billion—could be at direct risk. To protect this substantial volume of coins from quantum attacks, Pruden suggests that “recycling” these funds within the supply process could offer better security.

The report notes that Bitcoin’s fixed supply principle and property rights approach may conflict with potential countermeasures to the quantum threat.

Project Eleven is recognized for its focus on digital security and its warnings about the risks that quantum computers may pose to cryptocurrencies and infrastructure systems in the coming decade. With this comprehensive report, the organization has reignited debate in the sector on vulnerabilities quantum technology could expose.