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Current Phase: Early Mark-Up — Post-LPS Breakout
TSLA completed a textbook Wyckoff re-accumulation sequence off the $273 April low (max drawdown -29.93% on April 8). Price consolidated between $370–$395 for three weeks following Q1 earnings on April 22, forming a Last Point of Support (LPS) above the post-earnings low of $373. Friday's +4% surge on above-average volume is a Sign of Strength (SOS) — institutions absorbed the final supply overhang and are now marking price up.
Price-Volume Read: The reclaim of the 200-day MA ($404.39) on volume is the most significant development of the past month. The implied volatility (IV) is currently very low with an IV rank of just 8.76 — the options market is not pricing in near-term volatility. This is a low-IV environment, meaning debit spreads are cheap and favorable.
Most Probable Next Move: Continuation toward $436 → $452 over 2–4 weeks, with $416–$418 acting as the new support floor. A back-test of the 200-day MA ($403–$405) on low volume would be a buyable dip; a break below $392 would invalidate the breakout thesis.
TSLA completed a textbook Wyckoff re-accumulation sequence off the $273 April low (max drawdown -29.93% on April 8). Price consolidated between $370–$395 for three weeks following Q1 earnings on April 22, forming a Last Point of Support (LPS) above the post-earnings low of $373. Friday's +4% surge on above-average volume is a Sign of Strength (SOS) — institutions absorbed the final supply overhang and are now marking price up.
Price-Volume Read: The reclaim of the 200-day MA ($404.39) on volume is the most significant development of the past month. The implied volatility (IV) is currently very low with an IV rank of just 8.76 — the options market is not pricing in near-term volatility. This is a low-IV environment, meaning debit spreads are cheap and favorable.
Most Probable Next Move: Continuation toward $436 → $452 over 2–4 weeks, with $416–$418 acting as the new support floor. A back-test of the 200-day MA ($403–$405) on low volume would be a buyable dip; a break below $392 would invalidate the breakout thesis.
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