CITIC Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates once by 25 basis points in the second half of the year

According to ChainCatcher, citing Golden Ten Data, a research report by CITIC Securities states that the number of new non-farm jobs in the US for April 2026 exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate of 4.3% met expectations. The firm believes that April's data better reflects the current state of the US job market compared to the previous two months, mainly due to the reduction of one-off factors and a higher enterprise response rate. Regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy, if the situation in Iran eases and falling oil prices cool inflation expectations, the base scenario for the second half of the year is one rate cut of 25 basis points.