CITIC Securities: Annual copper mine output officially expected to decline

Golden Ten Data reported on May 12 that a research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that, with Freeport once again postponing the resumption of production at its Indonesia project and comprehensively lowering its 2026-27 production guidance, the 2026 output expectations of major global copper mining enterprises have officially slipped into a downward trend. In addition, the potential impact of extreme weather may further amplify supply disruptions. We anticipate that the recent domestic inventory drawdown exceeding expectations highlights a solid supply-demand logic, and that the easing of macroeconomic pressures will help copper prices stabilize at $13,000/ton in 2Q26. Driven by supply-demand expectation gaps, copper prices are likely to retest previous highs. We are optimistic about the allocation opportunities in the copper sector, where profit and valuation flexibility will resonate together.