Goldman Sachs lowers probability of US recession to 25%

According to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has been lowered from 30% to 25%. Despite heightened tensions in Iran, international oil prices have not surged significantly, and US employment and domestic demand data remain strong. In April, non-farm payrolls increased by 115,000, exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. Private domestic sales in the first quarter grew by 2.5% year-on-year, demonstrating resilient domestic demand. The Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index has fallen back to pre-war levels, and overall financial conditions are becoming more accommodative.