Gold prices are rising! Bank investment gold sales are booming! Institutions: Precious metal price center has a foundation for sustained upward movement

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　　Source: China Business Journal

　　On Monday Eastern Time, international precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.31% to $4,745.6/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rising 7.35% to $86.81/ounce.

　　As of May 12, spot gold was quoted at $4,751.92/ounce, and COMEX gold futures at $4,763.30/ounce.

　　In terms of domestic gold jewelry prices, they are generally around 1,440 yuan/gram. On May 12, Chow Tai Fook quoted 1,446 yuan/gram, Lao Miao Gold 1,449 yuan/gram, Chow Sang Sang 1,435 yuan/gram.

　　Since the beginning of this year, major banks in Beijing have seen a substantial increase in gold bar sales through their channels, and the subscriptions for gold-related wealth management products and funds have also risen significantly.

　　At a branch of a bank in Xicheng District, Beijing, customers frequently inquire about gold prices. According to reports,

　　Jia Chaoran, wealth manager at Industrial Bank Beijing Branch, said: “

The majority of clients choose to buy in batches and do not chase price surges, generally buying when prices are low.”

　　Data from the China Gold Association shows that

Of this, gold jewelry was 84.620 tons, down 37.10% year-on-year;

　　The China Gold Association stated that due to the high price level and significant volatility of international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry consumption remains under pressure and continued to decline. Moreover, investment demand for gold is strong, with gold bars and coins becoming popular assets, and gold bar sales through bank channels have increased substantially.

　　Some investors are also shifting capital to purchase gold or gold-related investments.

　　For the gold investment market, data from the China Gold Association shows that in the first quarter, all gold products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange had a bilateral trading volume of 14,500 tonnes, down 9.61% year-on-year; the bilateral trading value was 15.68 trillion yuan, up 46.58% year-on-year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw bilateral trading volume in all gold futures options at 6,760 tonnes, up 22.08% year-on-year; the bilateral trading value was 56.83 trillion yuan, up 86.18% year-on-year.

　　

As of the end of March 2026, domestic gold ETF holdings stood at 298.289 tons.

　　Yu Wei, deputy general manager of China Everbright Bank Beijing Branch, stated,

Risk-averse clients prefer “fixed income +” structured wealth products, while more experienced investors favor gold ETFs or FOF products.

　　Additionally, as of the end of April 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves surpassed $3.4 trillion again;

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, noted that the evolving Middle East situation has sharply pushed up international oil prices, and with global expectations of monetary easing—including Fed rate cuts—cooling, international gold prices declined for a second consecutive month in April. This may be a direct reason why the central bank accelerated gold acquisitions during the month.

　　“For a period, the central bank has continued to increase its gold holdings, fundamentally due to new changes in the global political and economic landscape,” Wang Qing stated. “This means that although gold prices are at historic highs, the need to increase gold from the perspective of optimizing international reserve structure has grown. Moreover, as gold is a globally accepted ultimate means of payment, central bank accumulation can enhance sovereign currency credibility and create favorable conditions for the prudent advancement of RMB internationalization. Given all these factors, the central bank may continue to increase its gold holdings in the future.”

　　Since the start of this year, gold prices have experienced a surge followed by a pullback and then range-bound volatility. Spot gold once nearly reached as high as $5,600/ounce and dropped to about $4,098/ounce at its lowest; accumulatively, gold's price has risen over 9% so far this year.

　　Huang Jiaqi, precious metals analyst at SCI99/Fubao Information, pointed out:

However, attention should still be paid to developments in the Middle East and risks from market sentiment fluctuations brought about by the Fed’s rate policies.

　　Shenyin & Wanguo Futures believes that

On one hand, geopolitical risks are rising globally, and the restructuring of the international political and economic order continues; on the other hand, concerns about US fiscal sustainability are intensifying, and with Trump’s frequent interference in Fed independence, the de-dollarization process will keep progressing, and the trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves will persist.

　　Senior commodities analyst Lina Thomas expects gold prices to reach $5,400/ounce by the end of 2026, driven by continuous diversification of central bank investments, normalization of currently relatively low speculative positions, and the anticipated 50 basis point Fed rate cut.

　　Bank of America’s report issued in early May suggests that while gold prices may remain under pressure in the short term, its long-term outlook remains bullish. The bank maintains its 12-month gold price target at $6,000/ounce. The report states that despite persistent inflation concerns, uncertainties in US economic policy—including large fiscal deficits and a weak dollar—will continue to support gold prices.

　　Composite reporting by China Business Journal based on CCTV Finance, People’s Daily Online, Chinanews.com, and China News Service Economic View

Editor: Zhu Henan