Commonwealth Bank of Australia Forecasts US CPI: Core Inflation May Exceed Market Consensus

On May 12, the market widely expects that the CPI data will reinforce expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term. Traders have ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year; prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, two rate cuts were anticipated. Sarah Hammoud, a foreign exchange strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated, "The risk is that, due to the spillover effects of energy prices on other prices such as airfare and food, US core inflation may be higher than the market consensus. If US core inflation exceeds expectations, it will push up US yields and the dollar exchange rate." (Jin Shi)