Wintermute: If BTC holds $80,000 amid macro shocks, the upward momentum is not just a “short squeeze”

Foresight News reports that Wintermute stated the breakthrough of Bitcoin above the 200-day moving average is highly significant. It is the first time since last October and removes the technical ceiling that defined the current bear market. However, this happened against the backdrop of leveraged momentum, short covering, and declining spot trading volume. Previous cycle bottoms were confirmed by organic spot inflows, which have not yet been observed this time. Institutional buying remains the strongest argument for now. ETF inflows, declining exchange reserves, and whale accumulation all indicate that long-term holders are absorbing supply. But at higher price levels, the strength of this buying is net decreasing. Currently, the stock market is propping up the crypto market. If CPI data is hotter-than-expected and Warsh's transition brings uncertainty, stock market buying may stall. Only if Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 amid macro shocks will it be a real confirmation signal. If it drops in sync with the stock market, it suggests that short squeezes are the true driving force, rather than any kind of paradigm shift.

The sustained structure of market squeezing seems to be slowly resolving, but if it happens again, it could easily push the market higher. While this may occur in the short term, from a mid-term perspective—given falling spot trading volume and increased leverage/speculation, with the RSI visibly stretched—the market may need to take a breather.