Expert to XRP Investors: This Is Not Prediction. This Is Probabilistic Analysis

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has shared a new technical analysis of XRP that focuses on what he describes as a “diminishing downside structure” in relation to the asset’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

The analyst argued in a tweet that XRP’s long-term corrections have become progressively smaller across market cycles, leading to a possible macro bottom near $0.93 if the historical pattern continues.

The chart attached to the analysis highlighted XRP’s historical cycle lows against the 200 SMA. According to Egrag Crypto, the first major cycle low saw XRP fall roughly 60% below the 200 SMA. During the second major cycle low, the downside reportedly reached about 40% below the same indicator.

Using the same declining pattern, the analyst projected that the next major low could form approximately 20% below the 200 SMA. Based on the current chart structure, he estimated that the level is around $0.93.

#XRP – Bottoming Thesis Below 200 SMA :

This Weekly #XRP chart presents a VERY interesting diminishing downside structure relative to the 200 SMA.

Let’s break it down carefully:

🏳️First major cycle low:
▫️#XRP bottomed roughly: ~60% below the 200 SMA

🏳️Second major cycle low:… pic.twitter.com/G2GjA8iaGD

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) May 10, 2026

Diminishing Downside Expansion Becomes Key Focus

In the post, Egrag Crypto described the pattern as “diminishing downside expansion.” He explained that mature assets often experience reduced downside volatility as market structures evolve. According to the analyst, this process can lead to smaller capitulation phases compared to earlier cycles.

He added that stronger macro support structures and increased institutional liquidity may help reduce the severity of corrections. The analysis suggested that XRP no longer requires the extreme 60% and 80% declines seen in earlier years to establish macro bottoms.

The chart also emphasized XRP’s long-term ascending trendline, which the analyst believes remains intact despite recent price fluctuations. Egrag Crypto stated that the 100 SMA and 200 SMA act as important equilibrium zones throughout XRP’s historical cycles.

Historical XRP Corrections Continue to Narrow

The analysis focused heavily on how XRP’s historical panic phases appear to be becoming progressively shallower. Egrag Crypto argued that the current structure suggests the market may be entering a more stable phase compared to previous cycles.

The attached weekly chart highlights several periods where XRP revisited major support zones before continuing higher in later phases of the market cycle. The analyst used these historical reactions to support the possibility of a future bottom forming near the projected $0.93 region.

However, Egrag Crypto also clarified that the projection should not be viewed as a guaranteed price target. He stated that the thesis represents a probabilistic framework rather than a direct prediction.

According to the analyst, the setup remains valid only if XRP maintains its broader weekly structure, respects the macro trendline, and sees the 200 SMA rise over time.

Analyst Says Structure Matters More Than Emotion

Egrag Crypto concluded the post by stressing that the analysis is based entirely on long-term structural behavior rather than emotional market reactions. He maintained that historical price behavior and moving average relationships provide a more logical framework for evaluating XRP’s macro bottom zones.