Delphi Digital Releases Strategy Deep Dive Report: Saylor's "Infinite Hodl" Approach Nearing Key Threshold

BlockBeats News, May 12: cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital released its latest report "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," focusing on analyzing the sustainability of Strategy's current Bitcoin accumulation model and pointing out that its funding structure is gradually approaching a critical pressure point.

The report pointed out that the early sustainability of Strategy's continuous Bitcoin accumulation lies in MSTR's stock price being consistently higher than the company's Bitcoin net asset value (mNAV), allowing the company to achieve "per-share Bitcoin holding growth" through issuing new shares to buy BTC.

However, MSTR's EV-based mNAV has now dropped to about 1.24 times, indicating that the space for continued financing through common stock issuance has significantly narrowed, approaching the breakeven point.

At the same time, Strategy has heavily relied on convertible bond financing in the past. Although low-interest convertible bonds have helped the company expand rapidly, it still has approximately $8.2 billion in principal debt remaining and will begin a significant repayment cycle in September 2027.

The report believes that what is truly supporting its continued Bitcoin purchases is the STRC (Strategy Preferred) financing structure. STRC is aimed at yield-seeking investors, offering an annualized 11.5% dividend paid monthly, allowing the company to continue buying BTC using the raised funds without the pressure of additional convertible bond maturities.

However, Delphi pointed out that the cost of this model is "an ever-growing fixed income liability." Each STRC financing round, while immediately increasing the BTC reserves, also adds future dividend payment obligations.

The report warned that if the BTC price continues to rise and MSTR's premium remains high, this structure can still operate. However, if BTC remains range-bound in the long term, the dividend liability will continue to accumulate, and the efficiency of common stock financing will continue to decrease.

In addition, Strategy still has $2.25 billion in cash reserves, covering the approximately $1 billion convertible bond putback pressure in 2027, but the larger debt wall in 2028 still needs to be addressed. Delphi also pointed out that the current authorized financing limit for STRC is $28.3 billion. Once this limit is reached and cannot be expanded, Strategy's "ability to continuously purchase Bitcoin" to offset dividend dilution may significantly weaken or even stop.