(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices were modestly lower and spot silver prices were firmer late Tuesday as hotter U.S. inflation, higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar weighed against residual haven demand tied to Middle East supply risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,714.40 an ounce, down 0.42%, while spot silver was trading at $86.440, up 0.54% on the session.
Gold’s session range was $4,637.90 to $4,774.20, leaving the market above the $4,700 area but off the day’s high. Silver held a wider session range of $82.940 to $87.320, keeping the gold-silver split intact after Monday’s silver-led move.
The April CPI report kept the rates headwind in place. CPI rose 0.6% month over month after a 0.9% increase in March, while the annual rate accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%. Core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 2.8% year over year, with energy up 3.8% in April and gasoline up 5.4%.
The inflation mix left precious metals with competing signals: sticky price pressure supported the hard-asset narrative, but higher yields and a firmer dollar limited gold’s response. Silver’s outperformance reflected a market still willing to pay for the industrial and monetary mix, even as gold struggled to extend above the upper half of Tuesday’s range.
The Senate’s 51-45 confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board adds a policy-independence risk premium to gold, but the immediate impact is likely capped unless markets price a faster path to Fed chair and lower real rates. For the broader market, the vote should steepen the focus on Fed credibility, the dollar and long-end Treasury yields: a Warsh chair path could support equities at the margin if rate-cut expectations build, but gold benefits most if the move weakens confidence in the Fed’s inflation-fighting independence.
The next U.S. data risk is April PPI on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by import and export prices on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Those releases will give rates traders a second read on whether April’s energy shock is feeding through producer margins and tradable goods prices.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $102.12 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $107.49. The U.S. dollar index was firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,700 level, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average near $4,757 and then the $4,860 to $4,880 resistance zone. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $4,660 to $4,680 support zone, with deeper downside targets at $4,530 to $4,550 and then the 200-day moving average near $4,329. First resistance is seen at $4,700 and then at $4,757. First support is seen at $4,660 to $4,680 and then at $4,530 to $4,550.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $85.00 to $86.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $95.00 to $96.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $83.00, with deeper downside targets at $78.00 to $79.00. First resistance is seen at $85.00 to $86.00 and then at $95.00 to $96.00. Next support is seen at $83.00 and then at $78.00 to $79.00.
