EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidates below mid-1.1700s as Iran risks, Fed bets support USD

The EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses and oscillating in a narrow band, below mid-1.1700s, during the Asian session on Wednesday. Traders now seem hesitant and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

In the meantime, hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released on Tuesday lifted market bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Apart from this, the diminishing odds for a US-Iran peace deal, amid disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, continue to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent move up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. Moreover, spot prices hold above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a modestly constructive near-term tone despite softening momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased towards the mid-40s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly below zero with the histogram turning negative. This hints that upside traction is losing strength even as the EUR/USD pair stays supported by its underlying trend structure.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the ascending channel support near the 1.1715 region and the 200-period SMA at 1.1692 before positioning for further losses. Acceptance below the latter would weaken the EUR/USD pair's current constructive bias and expose deeper retracements within the broader range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper boundary of the parallel channel around 1.1830. A convincing breakout through the said barrier would open the way for a more decisive bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

EUR/USD 4-hour chart