Middle East crude oil benchmark rises to a one-week high as supply tightness continues to intensify

⑴ The premiums on Middle Eastern crude oil benchmarks such as Oman, Dubai, and Murban rose to the highest level in over a week on Thursday. Despite spot trading activity remaining subdued, persistent supply tightness has provided support. ⑵ The International Energy Agency stated on Wednesday that, due to severe disruptions to Middle Eastern oil production caused by the Iran war and an unprecedented rate of inventory consumption, there will be a global oil supply shortfall this year, reversing previous expectations of a supply surplus. ⑶ The cash Dubai premium over swaps increased by $2.23 to $10.51 per barrel. A Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refiner Eneos has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, becoming the second Japanese-affiliated oil ship to make such a transit. ⑷ Indian Prime Minister Modi will make a brief visit to the UAE on Friday, during which he is expected to discuss a long-term energy supply agreement and seek support to expand India's strategic oil reserves. European airlines, airports, and travel agencies remain optimistic about aviation fuel supplies, despite the current crisis having already doubled prices compared to the pre-war period.