CaiXin Futures: Copper and zinc show strength, aluminum remains volatile, precious metals are mildly bullish, lithium carbonate sees a surge in high-level risks

汇通财经2026/05/14 12:47

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Shanghai Copper: On Monday, Peru issued an emergency decree due to an energy crisis. As one of the main copper ore suppliers, coupled with the postponement of Indonesia's Grasberg mine production to the end of 2027 and Zambia's output decline, market concerns over ore supply continue. Although there is a broad aversion to high prices among downstream players and spot premiums are difficult to follow, overall, copper prices remain more likely to rise than fall.
Shanghai Aluminum: Regarding geopolitics, on the 12th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that there is no urgency to resolve the conflicts with Iran. On the same day, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said they have developed corresponding plans for all scenarios concerning Iran.
Shanghai Zinc: Regarding geopolitics, on the 12th local time, U.S. President Trump stated that there is no urgency to resolve the conflicts with Iran. On the same day, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth said they have developed corresponding plans for all scenarios concerning Iran.
Precious Metals: Driven by the sharp surge in energy prices caused by Middle East conflicts, the U.S. Producer Price Index for April greatly exceeded expectations, reaching the highest increase in more than three years, significantly raising market bets on Fed rate hikes. Caught between rising geopolitical anxiety and intensifying inflation concerns, gold continues to consolidate in a broad sideways range. Meanwhile, silver has shown relatively strong performance, impacted by Peru’s emergency decree on the energy crisis. Overall, precious metal prices are expected to show short-term strength and volatility.
Lithium Carbonate: Today, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures saw a surge followed by a pullback, with a significant capital outflow of 5.3 billion yuan and a reduction of over 50 thousand lots in open interest, as funds cashed out profits and the market’s risk appetite fell noticeably. Several bearish rumors intensified during the day, dragging down the high market. First, traders hold much more hidden inventory than officially reported. Second, a second Chinese enterprise in Zimbabwe has started shipping lithium carbonate. Third, weekly production and sales data from SMM and Fubao released at noon were marginally bullish, maintaining the inventory reduction pace—however, the intraday rebound instead led to more long positions exiting. Currently, long positions in lithium carbonate are crowded, and sensitivity to negative news at high levels is greatly elevated, with even minor profit-taking triggering rapid corrections and increasing stage-high risk. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart has posted four consecutive positive closes with a high cumulative increase, and there is a gap at 189,000 yuan per ton on both the weekly and monthly charts that technically needs to be filled. Spot prices are also strengthening, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices adjusted downwards by 3,050 yuan and a median price at 194,850 yuan per ton. Futures are trading at a discount to spot, with deteriorating expectations.

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CaiXin Futures: Copper and zinc show strength, aluminum remains volatile, precious metals are mildly bullish, lithium carbonate sees a surge in high-level risks

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