Analysis: Controversy over a “May sell-off” resurfaces, risk of bitcoin falling below key support intensifies

Jinse Finance reported that market analysts are clearly divided on whether Bitcoin will repeat the "Sell in May" pattern. Some analyses point out that during US midterm election years, Bitcoin has historically experienced significant corrections in May: in 2018, it dropped from around $10,000 to $7,000, and in 2022, it fell almost 30% from near $40,000, later plunging further to the $20,000 range. Based on this pattern, some warn that 2026 could see a similar bear market structure. However, dissenting opinions argue that these historical declines were actually driven by specific macro shocks—such as liquidity tightening, industry black swan events, and regulatory impacts—rather than a purely seasonal trend. Now, with ETF inflows, institutional allocations, and corporate holdings significantly changing the market structure, a repeat of past extreme drops of 70%–80% is considered unlikely.