Inflation spikes sharply, precious metals see significant correction

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新浪财经2026/05/18 06:18

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By:新浪财经

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Inflation spikes sharply, precious metals see significant correction image 0

Source: CME Group

　　
Summary:

Last week, the global financial market was hit by a tightening in liquidity. The US April CPI rose year-on-year to 3.8%, hitting a near three-year high, with core CPI climbing to 2.8%. On top of that, the non-farm payrolls increase of 115,000 in April far exceeded expectations, leading the market to completely abandon hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. The Senate confirmed Walsh as the new Fed Chair, raising market concerns about his hawkish stance. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke through 4.5%, and the 30-year Treasury yield soared above 5%; Japanese bond yields also surged in tandem, tightening liquidity further in the short term. Trump's visit to China and the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents sent constructive signals, providing some easing expectations to the strained trade environment, but failed to reverse risk-off sentiment. Copper prices pulled back under liquidity shock, and precious metals experienced a notable correction.

Key Points

, Sudden liquidity tightening leads to sharp short-term pullback in copper prices

US inflation data exceeded expectations and the appointment of Walsh as Fed Chair pushed market expectations of a rate cut this year to near zero, with even rate hike probabilities traded for

December

reaching

50%

. Rising US and Japanese bond yields triggered a global liquidity squeeze, leading to a broad-based decline in risk assets. Copper prices staged a short-term pullback despite sound long-term fundamentals.

, Smelting TC fell below -$100/ton, reinforcing a tightening supply trend

SMM

Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) posted

-102.84

USD

ton, down another

9.2

USD from last week—the first time in history below

-100

USD. In April,

China's

copper ore imports fell by

19.57%

year-on-year, marking the first decline since December 2020.

April

domestic refined copper output fell by

2.26%

month-on-month,

May

output is expected to decline further to

1.1675

million tons. Although news of Freeport-Grasberg mine’s full resumption only in early

2028

was partially clarified, expectations of tightened supply remain unchanged.

, Precious metals hit by macro "triple whammy," rate-cut expectations shattered

CPI

much higher than expected, robust non-farm payrolls, and Walsh’s confirmation—these three negative catalysts squeezed out all expectations for a Fed rate cut this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield surged, real interest rates climbed, and precious metals saw distinct corrections.

COMEX

gold fell over

for the week to near

$4,550

per ounce, down more than

. On the geopolitical front, no easing was seen in US-Iran tensions, oil prices remained strong, but the macro picture overshadowed any support for precious metals. Short-term outlook is bearish with mid-term focus on cooling inflation data.

I. Review of the Base Metals Market

COMEX/

SHFE Copper Market Observation

Last week, copper prices rose early before retreating. Early in the week, they were boosted by Trump's visit to China and constructive China-US talks, but soon fell back on US inflation surprises and Walsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair, raising liquidity tightening fears.

COMEX

copper fell from above

$6.71

per pound to a low of

$6.25

per pound. SHFE copper main contract dropped from

108,900

CNY

ton to

104,710

CNY

ton.

As for term structure,

COMEX

returned to a premium structure;

SHFE

near-month contracts reverted to a discount, with domestic spot discounting about

150

CNY

ton. The widening price spread reflects the greater short-term liquidity shock at the front end.

Chart

CFTC

Fund Net Position

For more copper concentrate sector insights, please subscribe to the full weekly report.

II. Review of Precious Metals Market

Precious Metals Market Overview

Last week, precious metals experienced a significant correction under a triple whammy: In April, US

CPI

rose

3.8%

year-on-year, the largest increase in nearly three years and above expectations of

3.7%

and prior

3.3%

; core

CPI

rose to

2.8%

;

PPI

climbed to its highest since

2022

, energy costs surged

7.8%

in one month. Meanwhile, in April, non-farm payrolls increased by

115,000

far exceeding expectations, and unemployment remained at

4.3%

. The Senate confirmed Walsh as Fed Chair, stoking hawkish fears, 10-year US Treasury yield broke

4.5%

, 30-year yield over

. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2024 were completely shattered,

CME FedWatch

showed

December

rate hike odds near

50%

. Precious metals suffered a significant retreat.

On the geopolitical side, there was no sign of easing between the US and Iran. Early in the week, the US military fired warning shots at an Iranian tanker attempting to break through near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran submitted a 14-point plan through third-party channels, which Trump called “

completely unacceptable

”

on the same day his visit to China ended. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were accused of directly attacking Iranian refineries both on the mainland and Persian Gulf islands, and Kuwait accused Iran of armed infiltration and firefights on strategic islands. By week’s end, no oil tankers had docked at Iran’s main export ports for several days, with the overall situation tight and oil prices strong. But macro headwinds have overridden geopolitical support for precious metals.

Trump’s China visit and the almost nine-hour meeting between China and US leaders sent constructive signals, with both sides agreeing to build a “

Constructive and strategically stable China-US relationship

”

. Trade teams agreed to create a trading council and promote two-way trade, providing some easing expectations to the stressed trade environment, but limited impact on precious metals.

, Price Comparisons and Volatility

Last week, the gold/silver ratio rebounded from around

60.6

to about

62.8

, as silver underperformed gold. The gold/copper ratio slightly rebounded—copper corrected more than gold. The gold/oil ratio remained stable, oil prices strong with little change in the ratio.

Gold

VIX

rose from

to nearly

this week, showing a significant increase in market panic, and greater volatility from liquidity shocks. Silver volatility surpassed

Chart

COMEX

Gold

/COMEX

Silver

　　Recently, the influence of the yuan exchange rate has increased compared to earlier periods. Last week, the domestic/foreign gold price spread and relative ratio both rose, while the silver spread narrowed, and its relative ratio increased.

, Inventory and Positions

Chart

COMEX

Precious Metals Inventory

In terms of positions,

SPDR

gold

ETF

holdings increased by

tons to

1,101

tons,

SLV

silver

ETF

holdings increased by

475

tons to

15,992

tons; as of now,

COMEX

total non-commercial gold positions are

264,000

contracts, with non-commercial long positions decreasing by

1,783

contracts to

212,000

contracts, and short positions decreasing by

1,045

contracts to

52,000

contracts; non-commercial long positions still predominate, but the ratio fell slightly to about

50.4%

, while short positions make up around

12.5%

Chart

COMEX

Gold Positioning

For more on precious metals inventory and positions, please subscribe to the full weekly report.

III. Market Outlook

For copper, short-term liquidity shocks have driven prices down, but long-term fundamentals remain sound.

breaking below

-$100

/ton, a sharp drop in copper ore imports in

April

, and lower domestic refinery production in

May

continue to strengthen the supply squeeze logic from mine to refinery. After the price pullback, point-price buying increased downstream, showing stronger support at lower levels. Macro-wise, Trump’s China visit signaled easing China-US relations, but the market still needs to digest rate hike expectations due to unexpected US inflation. Key to watch going forward is whether the export window opens.

　　Precious metals: Short-term macro pressures dominate. Inflation surprises, strong non-farm payrolls, and Walsh’s appointment as Fed Chair have erased all expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, with rate hike bets even emerging. Rising US Treasury yields continue to weigh on precious metals. Geopolitics remain tense, but in the short term, the market focus remains on tightening liquidity.

Key Concerns and Risk Reminders

Walsh’s first public statement as Fed Chair, the next round of US-Iran diplomatic contacts (and whether there’s progress after Iran’s plan was rejected), China’s

April

economic data (industrial output, investment, consumption), and whether domestic copper social inventory clearance can restart.

Editor: Zhu Henan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Inflation spikes sharply, precious metals see significant correction

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