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Well-known investment bank: In a bull market scenario, the S&P 500 could rise to 9,000 points within a year

Well-known investment bank: In a bull market scenario, the S&P 500 could rise to 9,000 points within a year

格隆汇格隆汇2026/05/19 01:34
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Glonhui, May 19|Julian Emanuel, the chief equity and quantitative strategist at the well-known U.S. investment bank Evercore ISI, recently stated that his base expectation is for the S&P 500 Index to rise to 7,750 points by the end of the year. He also believes that, driven by gains in AI-powered technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary stocks, there is a 30% chance the index could reach 9,000 points in a bull market scenario. Although the Middle East conflict remains at an impasse, the U.S. stock market continues to "run hot." However, in the past two days, as surging crude oil prices have triggered global inflation concerns and U.S. Treasury yields have soared, U.S. stocks have pulled back slightly. Analysis indicates that against the backdrop of rising energy prices and heightened long-term inflation worries, bonds appear more attractive relative to high-risk stocks, leading funds to exit the equity market.Nevertheless, Emanuel remains optimistic. In a report to clients on Monday, he noted that the collision between a tech-driven structural bull market and sweeping geopolitical changes worldwide is producing broader outcomes than investors or forecasting tools usually simulate, thereby raising the likelihood of extreme outcomes (bull market scenarios). The report further explains, “The pandemic changed everything. Stimulus measures similar to wartime effort, a surge in M2, and productivity shocks are now colliding with the ‘AI revolution’—this is reminiscent of the 1920s and the 1990s.”
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