HSBC: More central banks may still raise interest rates even if the US and Iran reach a ceasefire

Golden Ten Data reported on May 19 that HSBC economists Janet Henry and Bhasen Ellis stated in a report that even if the United States and Iran reach a peace agreement in the short term, it is expected that more central banks will raise policy interest rates. They noted that even if the Strait of Hormuz quickly reopens, the risk of supply shocks and their impact on global inflation and growth will persist. The current interest rate hikes are more about credibility. The central banks of Australia and Norway were already facing inflationary pressures before the conflict and hope that the rate hikes in May will be the last. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England may start raising interest rates in June or July, and if the Federal Reserve raises rates, more emerging market economies may tighten their policies. HSBC expects the Philippines to raise rates further and anticipates that India and Indonesia will raise rates in the second half of the year.