Wall Street analysts increasingly value crypto firms as infrastructure, AI and capital markets platforms

Three Wall Street firms converged Monday on a shared investment argument across four publicly traded crypto companies, suggesting that the market is applying trading-business multiples to platforms that have already shifted toward AI infrastructure, capital markets utilities, and structured financial operations.

Analysts at Benchmark, TD Cowen, and Mizuho each maintained buy-equivalent ratings on Bitdeer, DeFi Technologies, Strive, and Gemini — even as three of the four notes trimmed price targets to reflect compressed valuation multiples across the payments and crypto sectors.

Benchmark on Bitdeer

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer made an expansive infrastructure case with Bitdeer (BTDR), reiterating his Buy rating and $27 price target.

At the center of the argument is Bitdeer's approximately 3.0 gigawatt global power portfolio — spanning the U.S., Norway, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Canada, and Malaysia — which Palmer argued may prove materially more valuable than current market pricing implies as hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies face mounting power constraints.

However, Palmer noted that the near-term test of that thesis is Bitdeer's Tydal site in Norway, expected to deliver roughly 180 megawatts of gross installed capacity designed for AI colocation workloads aligned with Nvidia reference architectures.

Management told investors on its Q1 earnings call that negotiations with a prospective investment-grade tenant are in advanced stages, with pricing described as favorable relative to comparable announced transactions. Palmer called a signed lease the most likely catalyst for a rerating of BTDR shares.

Bitdeer's AI cloud annual recurring revenue expanded from roughly $10 million at the end of January to roughly $69 million by the end of April, according to the note. GPU deployment climbed past 4,100 units, with utilization above 90%, and customers are increasingly committing to three- to five-year contracts.

Yet, the Q1 earnings print was a mixed read too. Revenue of $188.9 million more than doubled year over year from $70.1 million, but a gross loss of $39 million and a net loss of $159.5 million reflected accelerated deployment of Bitdeer's SEALMINER fleet alongside higher electricity costs and depreciation tied to rapid infrastructure expansion.

Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $14.4 million, compared with a loss of $45.6 million a year earlier.

Palmer attributed the margin pressure to transitory factors — weaker bitcoin pricing during the quarter, unusually high non-cash depreciation from rapid miner deployment, and seasonal power cost dynamics at its Norway and Bhutan facilities.

DeFi Technologies

Benchmark analysts also highlighted DeFi Technologies (DEFT), cutting their target to $2 from $3 while reiterating their Buy rating. The note used a 12x multiple on 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.15.

DEFT posted revenue of $11.2 million and net income of $4.9 million in Q1 as average AUM at its Valor ETP subsidiary fell 32% year over year to $533.6 million — what management characterized as the trough of the current crypto bear market.

CEO Johan Wattenstrom told investors the company would eventually look less like an asset manager and more like "a vertically integrated capital markets utility for digital assets," with a proprietary in-house custody stack targeting a productized release in late Q3.

Wattenstrom argued that every real-world asset tokenization product, stablecoin issuance, and securitized digital instrument would require a custodian, making the in-house solution both a cost reduction and a platform anchor for adjacent products.

Stillman Digital, DEFT's institutional OTC trading arm, grew trading commissions 38% year over year to $2.9 million in the quarter and is tracking toward the upper end of its 15% to 20% full-year growth target, with management guiding to roughly $12 million in 2026 revenue versus $10 million in 2025.

A Nasdaq minimum bid compliance issue added an unusual dimension to the note. DEFT is currently testing the dollar threshold, and Wattenström told investors the company had roughly a year of runway across two 180-day compliance windows, with any reverse split — if pursued — to be followed by significant share buybacks.

DEFT ended Q1 with approximately $156 million in combined cash, stablecoins, crypto treasury holdings, and venture portfolio value against a market capitalization of roughly $275 million.

Strive’s capital formation play

Meanwhile, TD Cowen raised its price target on Strive (ASST) to $30 from the previous $26, with analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete citing a capital formation innovation they argued would accelerate bitcoin accumulation per fully diluted share.

The catalyst was Strive's announced plan to pay daily dividends on its SATA perpetual preferred shares — what the note called the first such structure adopted by a public company.

Under the proposed design, dividends will continue to be declared monthly but distributed in equal daily installments throughout the period, intended to smooth pronounced trading volume spikes around monthly record dates and reduce ex-dividend price dislocations. TD Cowen expects the structure to widen the investor base for SATA, improve its collateral value, and eventually make it eligible for inclusion in low-volatility or income-oriented mandates.

Analysts now forecast SATA comprising roughly 50% of Strive's total capital raised over its projection period, up from approximately 25% previously. The firm raised its 2026 BTC Yield estimate to 26.1% from 21.3%, implying a projected $263 million in bitcoin dollar gains for the year. Strive held 13,628 BTC as of the end of Q1.

Mizuho maintains Gemini outlook

One of the sharpest single data points in Monday's batch came from Mizuho Securities USA Managing Director Dan Dolev, who cut his price target on Gemini Space Station (GEMI) to $10 from $12 while maintaining his Outperform rating. Mizuho previously cut GEMI's price forecast from $26 to $12.

The reduction reflected more current payment and crypto valuation multiples, not a deteriorating business view.

Dolev argued the market was "under-appreciating the pace" of Gemini's transformation from a single-line crypto brokerage into a diversified markets platform.

A signal he pointed to in particular was that Gemini's transaction revenue held essentially flat in Q1 despite a greater than 50% decline in trading volumes. That mismatch, Dolev wrote, "is more important than the growth itself."

In his view, the data is evidence of take-rate expansion and a composition shift away from spot trading toward structurally less volatile revenue streams. Credit card economics accounted for roughly 30% of net revenue in the quarter, up approximately 300% year over year. Prediction markets exceeded 100 million contracts traded, with monthly volume up 78%.

Dolev argued Gemini is assembling what he called a regulated "edge stack", including its DCO license, which positions the company in the clearing layer rather than just execution, while early agentic trading infrastructure represents a first step toward API-native, AI-driven order flow that could reshape how liquidity reaches the platform.

The trajectory, Dolev wrote, mirrors how traditional finance incumbents evolved from pure exchanges into data, clearing, and workflow businesses. Only, in this case, it's faster due to the crypto undertone.

Mizuho projects Gemini will reach positive adjusted EBITDA in 2028, with 2026 revenue of $239 million rising to $330 million in 2027.

Dolev's $10 price target reflects roughly 3x his 2027 EV/revenue estimate against a peer group average of 6x, a discount that quantifies precisely the gap all four analysts spent Monday arguing the market has yet to close.