Chilean copper commission Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for 2026 to $5.55 per pound and said it expects prices to remain elevated in 2027 at $5.10 per pound, citing firm global demand and tight supply.
The updated outlook, published in Cochilco’s first-quarter copper market trends report on Tuesday, points to continued support from the global energy transition, electric vehicles, new technologies and artificial intelligence, even as supply risks persist.
Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas said the higher forecast reflected “solid global demand and a market with tight supply.”
He added that strong copper prices would bolster Chile’s fiscal revenues and reinforce its position as the world’s top copper producer.
Cochilco said global refined copper demand is expected to rise 1.5% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, reaching 28.2 million metric tons and 28.8 million tons, respectively.
On the supply side, global mined copper output is forecast to reach 23.3 million metric tons in 2026, up 0.5%, before rising 4.7% to 24.39 million tons in 2027, led mainly by Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, Mongolia, Canada and the United States.
Despite that growth, the refined copper market is expected to remain tight. After an estimated deficit of 124,000 tons in 2025, Cochilco forecast a small surplus of 12,000 tons in 2026 and a moderate surplus of 153,000 tons in 2027.
Chile is expected to retain about 22% of global copper mine output, though its own production is forecast to fall 2.0% in 2026 to 5.3 million tons before recovering 4.0% in 2027 to 5.5 million tons.
Cochilco said the projected production decline in 2026 reflected lower ore grades, scheduled maintenance, operational constraints and weak performance at the start of the year.
(By Natalia Ramos and Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez)
