Closely Monitoring the Bond Market Turning Point, Gold Market Quietly Brewing
On Wednesday (May 20) during the Asian and European sessions,
Trump and Vice President Vance sent positive signals regarding the Iran deal, and with the significant recovery in Hormuz Strait shipping volume, the global energy supply chain tension has marginally eased. This change directly transmits to the government bond market and gold pricing through inflation expectations, becoming a key clue for tracking the inflection of yields.
Shipping Update: Tankers Depart Smoothly, Strait Transit Doubles
Following the White House statement, international oil prices fell slightly, but experts warned that even if a US-Iran deal is reached, oil prices will remain high, which directly determines the downside space for bond yields and the safe haven value of gold.
Two Chinese supertankers that were stranded for more than two months have successfully sailed through. According to LSEG and Kpler, the “Yuan Guiyang” and “Haiyang Lily” together carried 4 million barrels of crude oil and departed;
Meanwhile, a South Korean crude tanker also traversed the strait. It is reported that “Yuan Guiyang” loaded 2 million barrels of Iraq’s Basra crude oil on February 27 (the day after the US-Israel war on Iran began), while “Haiyang Lily” loaded 1 million barrels each of Qatar’s Al Shaheen and Iraq’s Basra crude oil from late February to early March.
More crucially, Lloyd’s List shows that there were 54 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-17, doubling from 25 the previous week; Windward Maritime Analytics counted 19 ship transits on May 18 in a single day, including one oil tanker and five Iranian cargo ships.
Although the US continues to blockade Iranian ports and some vessels have turned off their automatic identification systems to pass, the rebound in shipping volume has already sent a signal of easing in the supply chain.
Negotiation Stalemate: “Deterrence + Negotiation” Intertwined, Geopolitical Risk Priced Volatilely
In the ongoing US-Iran negotiations, Trump stated that the war with Iran will “end quickly.” Vance said the negotiations are “progressing well, with substantial breakthroughs,” though Trump previously threatened military action and set a two-to-three-day deadline for a deal.
This pattern of “negotiation plus deterrence” causes persistent volatility in pricing geopolitical risk, directly impacting the term premium on Treasuries and the strength of gold’s safe-haven bidding.
Oil Prices and Inflation: Key Factors for Bond Yield Inflection
Usually, when the market is not paying much attention to oil prices, oil price increases lead US 30-year Treasury yields by 3-6 months. At present, with all global traders watching oil prices closely, the price movement transmits quickly to Treasury yields, especially the 30-year yield due to its longer duration and higher sensitivity to inflation.
Today, international oil prices have both adjusted downward, but LSEG analyst Emre Jamil pointed out that even if an agreement is signed, oil supply is unlikely to immediately return to pre-war levels, so there is still upward potential for oil prices.
Asset Linkage: Treasury Yields Hit New Highs, Gold Valuation Suppressed but Attribute Strengthened
High inflation directly pushed global government bond yields higher: UK 10-year gilt yields rose to 5.14% (a new high since 2008), German 10-year bund yields reached 3.12% (a new high since 2011).
Treasury yields and gold prices are significantly negatively correlated (correlation coefficient of -0.83 since 2003), and the core of gold valuation depends on the opportunity cost represented by yields. Gold, as a zero-yield, non-interest-bearing asset, faces a rising opportunity cost for holding when global long-term yields surge collectively. Conservative capital continues to flow into high-yield sovereign bonds, directly suppressing gold’s upside and causing gold prices to trade in a relatively weak, choppy pattern in the short term.
Inflection Point Capture: Three Key Signals for Grasping the Gold Allocation Window
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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