Are rate-cut advocates now a minority? Federal Reserve meeting minutes to reveal historically rare deep divisions
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Glonghui, May 20th|The depth of division among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the direction of interest rates and the severity of inflation will be revealed in the minutes to be released early this morning. These minutes will shed light on one of the most contentious meetings within the Fed. A growing number of Fed officials have adopted a cautious stance, concerned about inflation triggered by the Iran war and wary of any talk of future rate cuts; meanwhile, the number of officials still inclined to cut rates is decreasing. Waller previously said he welcomed "constructive internal debate" and had himself voiced support for rate cuts. A key highlight of the upcoming minutes will be the section describing the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) debate over the outlook for monetary policy. According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, although these minutes may appear somewhat outdated in light of the robust April employment report and last week's higher-than-expected inflation data, they still provide insight into how the size of the camp advocating a more neutral forward guidance is evolving. It is worth noting that three officials voted against the slightly dovish wording in April's meeting statement. Since that meeting, comments from Fed officials have shifted somewhat more hawkish.
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